Sun, Dec 31, 2023·Honda Center, Anaheim
Edmonton Oilers 7, Anaheim Ducks 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 210 | 318 | 211 | 739 |
| ANA | 114 | 08 | 18 | 230 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:15EDMRyan McLeodAssists: Warren Foegele · Wrist, 0.22 xG1–0
- P1 9:10ANAMax JonesAssists: Ryan Strome, Trevor Zegras · Backhand, 0.24 xG1–1
- P1 17:22EDMEvander KaneUnassisted · Wrap-around, 0.06 xG2–1
- P2 1:48EDMLeon DraisaitlGWGAssists: Darnell Nurse, Warren Foegele · Slap, 0.04 xG3–1
- P2 4:16EDMWarren FoegeleAssists: Darnell Nurse, Connor Brown · Tip-in, 0.16 xG4–1
- P2 11:43EDMWarren FoegeleAssists: Ryan McLeod, Leon Draisaitl · Wrist, 0.11 xG5–1
- P3 4:49ANAFrank VatranoAssists: Alex Killorn, Radko Gudas · Snap, 0.16 xG5–2
- P3 8:49EDMZach HymanAssists: Connor McDavid, Evan Bouchard · Wrist, 0.09 xG6–2
- P3 15:49EDMBrett KulakAssists: Leon Draisaitl, Warren Foegele · Wrist, 0.05 xG7–2
Penalties (20)
- P1 14:20EDMBrett Kulak: Interference2 min
- P1 17:58EDMMattias Janmark: Cross checking2 min
- P1 17:58ANAIlya Lyubushkin: Roughing2 min
- P1 17:58EDMMattias Janmark: Roughing2 min
- P1 17:58ANAIlya Lyubushkin: Roughing2 min
- P2 2:10ANARyan Strome: Hooking2 min
- P2 12:30EDMVincent Desharnais: Holding2 min
- P2 13:37EDMMattias Ekholm: Hooking2 min
- P2 13:37ANARyan Strome: Slashing2 min
- P2 0:00ANAAdam Henrique: Holding2 min
- P3 2:35ANARyan Strome: Fighting5 min
- P3 2:35EDMMattias Ekholm: Fighting5 min
- P3 10:34EDMMattias Janmark: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 10:34EDMMattias Janmark: Misconduct10 min
- P3 15:49ANATrevor Zegras: Spearing double minor4 min
- P3 15:49EDMLeon Draisaitl: Roughing2 min
- P3 15:49EDMLeon Draisaitl: Misconduct10 min
- P3 15:49ANATrevor Zegras: Misconduct10 min
- P3 17:07EDMWarren Foegele: Interference2 min
- P3 18:01ANAPavel Mintyukov: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McDavid won the faceoff against Henrique
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestDraisaitl – Foegele – McLeod9:39
xG 1.61–0.72 (69%)attempts 21–6goals 4–1
- Hyman – Nugent-Hopkins – McDavid11:12
xG 0.59–0.28 (68%)attempts 11–10goals 0–1
- Kane – Janmark – Ryan7:34
xG 0.17–0.14 (55%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
- Brown – Erne – Hamblin4:48
xG 0.24–0.52 (32%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEkholm – Bouchard10:14
xG 0.82–0.02 (97%)attempts 15–4goals 0–0
- Kulak – Desharnais10:56
xG 0.68–0.17 (80%)attempts 12–7goals 2–0
- Nurse – Bouchard3:07
xG 0.18–0.07 (73%)attempts 2–2goals 1–0
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestSilfverberg – Carrick – Johnston6:51
xG 0.45–0.00 (99%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Strome – Jones – Zegras8:42
xG 0.56–0.78 (42%)attempts 6–10goals 1–0
- Henrique – McGinn – Leason9:53
xG 0.23–0.52 (31%)attempts 7–11goals 0–1
- Killorn – Vatrano – McTavish10:36
xG 0.68–1.16 (37%)attempts 14–13goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestGudas – Vaakanainen13:18
xG 1.01–0.87 (54%)attempts 13–8goals 2–2
- Lyubushkin – Mintyukov10:41
xG 0.58–0.85 (40%)attempts 14–11goals 0–1
- Fowler – Drysdale16:03
xG 0.30–1.54 (16%)attempts 9–30goals 0–3
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).