Sun, Dec 31, 2023·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Chicago Blackhawks 1, Dallas Stars 8
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 88% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 06 | 09 | 19 | 124 |
| DAL | 317 | 210 | 314 | 841 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:35DALCraig SmithAssists: Sam Steel, Jani Hakanpää · Snap, 0.17 xG0–1
- P1 17:16DALRyan SuterGWGAssists: Jason Robertson, Miro Heiskanen · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–2
- P1 19:11DALTyler SeguinAssists: Mason Marchment, Matt Duchene · Tip-in, 0.09 xG0–3
- P2 3:43DALSam SteelAssists: Jason Robertson, Miro Heiskanen · Backhand, 0.05 xG0–4
- P2 12:50DALMason MarchmentPPAssists: Tyler Seguin, Nils Lundkvist · Wrist, 0.16 xG0–5
- P3 0:39CHIPhilipp KurashevPPAssists: Connor Bedard, Cole Guttman · Snap, 0.10 xG1–5
- P3 4:46DALRoope HintzAssists: Thomas Harley, Joe Pavelski · Deflected, 0.08 xG1–6
- P3 14:29DALMason MarchmentAssists: Tyler Seguin, Matt Duchene · Tip-in, 0.08 xG1–7
- P3 18:58DALMason MarchmentAssists: Esa Lindell, Nils Lundkvist · Tip-in, 0.04 xG1–8
Penalties (6)
- P1 3:56CHINick Foligno: Hooking2 min
- P2 1:38CHITyler Johnson: Tripping2 min
- P2 5:33DALJani Hakanpää: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 11:06CHIJarred Tinordi: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P2 14:58DALMason Marchment: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 19:20DALNils Lundkvist: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Johnston won the faceoff against Bedard
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestBlackwell – Dickinson – Beauvillier5:39
xG 0.24–0.16 (61%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Beauvillier – Kurashev – Bedard4:00
xG 0.23–0.17 (58%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Foligno – Blackwell – Dickinson5:08
xG 0.02–0.14 (10%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Johnson – Guttman – Reichel5:34
xG 0.07–0.32 (17%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Tinordi – Crevier3:09
xG 0.08–0.11 (43%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Murphy – Vlasic14:26
xG 0.32–0.37 (47%)attempts 19–10goals 0–1
- Phillips – Korchinski3:43
xG 0.12–0.28 (29%)attempts 5–5goals 0–1
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestSmith – Steel – Dellandrea9:25
xG 0.62–0.18 (77%)attempts 7–6goals 1–0
- Benn – Dadonov – Johnston10:16
xG 0.83–0.40 (67%)attempts 12–11goals 0–0
- Pavelski – Hintz – Robertson9:25
xG 0.82–0.48 (63%)attempts 11–11goals 2–0
- Duchene – Seguin – Marchment10:21
xG 0.48–0.28 (63%)attempts 11–13goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestHakanpää – Lindell11:59
xG 1.25–0.28 (82%)attempts 13–16goals 1–0
- Suter – Heiskanen12:31
xG 0.70–0.40 (63%)attempts 16–10goals 3–0
- Lundkvist – Harley16:09
xG 0.78–0.67 (54%)attempts 15–19goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 88% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).