Tue, Jan 2, 2024·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Montréal Canadiens 4, Dallas Stars 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 26 | 15 | 17 | 418 |
| DAL | 15 | 013 | 215 | 333 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:11DALJamie BennAssists: Wyatt Johnston · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–1
- P1 4:14MTLNick SuzukiAssists: Juraj Slafkovský, Jordan Harris · Slap, 0.09 xG1–1
- P1 9:46MTLKaiden GuhleAssists: Johnathan Kovacevic, Michael Pezzetta · Snap, 0.03 xG2–1
- P2 6:54MTLJordan HarrisUnassisted · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–1
- P3 6:45MTLCole CaufieldPPGWGAssists: Sean Monahan, Nick Suzuki · Snap, 0.23 xG4–1
- P3 16:12DALWyatt JohnstonAssists: Evgenii Dadonov, Mason Marchment · Backhand, 0.12 xG4–2
- P3 18:00DALJason RobertsonAssists: Matt Duchene, Mason Marchment · Backhand, 0.11 xG4–3
Penalties (3)
- P2 14:49MTLJosh Anderson: Slashing2 min
- P3 0:42DALJamie Benn: High sticking double minor4 min
- P3 5:59DALJoe Pavelski: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Johnston won the faceoff against Monahan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestSuzuki – Caufield – Slafkovský10:55
xG 0.35–0.08 (82%)attempts 5–3goals 2–0
- Gallagher – Evans – Suzuki2:31
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Armia – Stephens – Pezzetta5:43
xG 0.09–0.73 (10%)attempts 6–9goals 1–0
- Anderson – Monahan – Ylonen8:39
xG 0.00–0.80 (0%)attempts 1–21goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGuhle – Barron6:15
xG 0.19–0.10 (64%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Harris – Struble4:07
xG 0.31–0.26 (55%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Kovacevic – Struble4:27
xG 0.01–0.02 (27%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestPavelski – Hintz – Robertson10:24
xG 0.75–0.11 (87%)attempts 13–3goals 0–0
- Smith – Steel – Dellandrea5:29
xG 0.50–0.06 (89%)attempts 8–2goals 0–1
- Benn – Dadonov – Johnston8:58
xG 0.51–0.14 (78%)attempts 12–5goals 1–1
- Duchene – Seguin – Marchment12:35
xG 0.56–0.23 (71%)attempts 17–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestLundkvist – Harley11:37
xG 0.75–0.15 (83%)attempts 15–7goals 0–1
- Hakanpää – Lindell10:31
xG 0.77–0.23 (77%)attempts 15–5goals 1–1
- Suter – Harley2:34
xG 0.39–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).