Tue, Jan 2, 2024·Mullett Arena, Tempe
Florida Panthers 4, Arizona Coyotes 1
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 92% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 114 | 09 | 316 | 439 |
| ARI | 015 | 03 | 14 | 122 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:46FLACarter VerhaegheUnassisted · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–0
- P3 3:17ARIAlexander KerfootSHAssists: Lawson Crouse · Wrist, 0.23 xG1–1
- P3 7:56FLASam ReinhartPPGWGAssists: Aleksander Barkov, Carter Verhaeghe · Tip-in, 0.08 xG2–1
- P3 8:38FLAMatthew TkachukUnassisted · Other, 1.00 xG3–1
- P3 17:39FLAGustav ForslingENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.33 xG4–1
Penalties (15)
- P1 11:54ARIAlexander Kerfoot: Roughing2 min
- P1 11:54FLANick Cousins: Roughing2 min
- P1 11:54ARIAlexander Kerfoot: Interference2 min
- P1 19:12FLAKevin Stenlund: Cross checking2 min
- P2 2:56ARILiam O'Brien: Tripping2 min
- P2 19:09FLAGustav Forsling: Instigator2 min
- P2 19:09FLAGustav Forsling: Fighting5 min
- P2 19:09ARIJason Zucker: Boarding5 min
- P2 19:09ARIJason Zucker: Fighting5 min
- P2 19:09FLAGustav Forsling: Instigator misconduct10 min
- P2 19:09ARIJason Zucker: Game misconduct10 min
- P3 7:19ARITroy Stecher: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 9:57ARILiam O'Brien: High sticking2 min
- P3 9:57ARILiam O'Brien: Misconduct10 min
- P3 14:27FLAOliver Ekman-Larsson: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Barkov won the faceoff against McBain
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestVerhaeghe – Bennett – Tkachuk8:21
xG 1.99–0.05 (97%)attempts 14–2goals 2–0
- Cousins – Luostarinen – Lundell6:20
xG 0.40–0.17 (70%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- Barkov – Reinhart – Rodrigues7:50
xG 0.35–0.22 (61%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Stenlund – Lomberg – Lockwood8:01
xG 0.07–0.18 (29%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKulikov – Mikkola3:28
xG 1.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 1–0
- Ekblad – Forsling12:40
xG 1.12–0.39 (74%)attempts 19–13goals 0–0
- Montour – Mikkola10:21
xG 0.69–0.25 (74%)attempts 11–7goals 1–0
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- Sanford – Carcone – McBain7:43
xG 0.54–0.49 (52%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Zucker – O'Brien – Cooley7:21
xG 0.07–0.28 (19%)attempts 4–12goals 0–0
- Bjugstad – Crouse – Maccelli7:42
xG 0.27–0.76 (26%)attempts 7–14goals 0–1
- Kerfoot – Schmaltz – Keller7:33
xG 0.35–1.04 (25%)attempts 14–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestDumba – Moser11:22
xG 0.79–0.61 (57%)attempts 17–7goals 0–1
- Stecher – Välimäki12:08
xG 0.15–0.53 (22%)attempts 4–18goals 0–0
- Durzi – Kesselring10:36
xG 0.36–2.04 (15%)attempts 15–20goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ARI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ARI is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 92% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ARI − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).