Tue, Jan 2, 2024·Ball Arena, Denver
New York Islanders 4, Colorado Avalanche 5 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 83% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 28 | 29 | 05 | 00 | 422 |
| COL | 116 | 210 | 112 | 11 | 539 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:39NYIPierre EngvallAssists: Brock Nelson · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–0
- P1 6:11COLDevon ToewsAssists: Logan O'Connor, Cale Makar · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–1
- P1 19:28NYIBrock NelsonPPAssists: Noah Dobson, Ilya Sorokin · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–1
- P2 1:09NYISimon HolmstromAssists: Cal Clutterbuck · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–1
- P2 4:18COLValeri NichushkinAssists: Samuel Girard, Jonathan Drouin · Wrist, 0.23 xG3–2
- P2 8:24COLJonathan DrouinAssists: Mikko Rantanen, Nathan MacKinnon · Snap, 0.10 xG3–3
- P2 10:18NYIAlexander RomanovAssists: Mathew Barzal · Slap, 0.04 xG4–3
- P3 12:21COLValeri NichushkinPPAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Cale Makar · Wrist, 0.08 xG4–4
- OT 0:32COLNathan MacKinnonPPGWGAssists: Cale Makar, Mikko Rantanen · Slap, 0.10 xG4–5
Penalties (8)
- P1 7:47NYIMike Reilly: Hooking2 min
- P1 14:52NYIScott Mayfield: Cross checking2 min
- P1 19:13COLNathan MacKinnon: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 2:14NYIMathew Barzal: High sticking2 min
- P2 5:41COLAndrew Cogliano: Holding2 min
- P3 8:53COLJoel Kiviranta: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 10:47NYIMike Reilly: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 19:38NYIScott Mayfield: Holding2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Olofsson won the faceoff against Cizikas
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestPageau – Gauthier – Holmstrom7:51
xG 0.25–0.18 (58%)attempts 5–10goals 0–1
- Clutterbuck – Cizikas – Fasching7:10
xG 0.12–0.13 (48%)attempts 4–8goals 0–1
- Palmieri – Nelson – Engvall11:03
xG 0.15–0.36 (30%)attempts 6–17goals 1–0
- Lee – Horvat – Barzal10:06
xG 0.29–0.52 (35%)attempts 14–12goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestBortuzzo – Bolduc5:02
xG 0.21–0.08 (72%)attempts 4–7goals 1–0
- Dobson – Bolduc2:50
xG 0.11–0.04 (75%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Mayfield – Bolduc5:04
xG 0.02–0.02 (40%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestMacKinnon – Drouin – Rantanen13:00
xG 0.69–0.14 (83%)attempts 20–8goals 1–1
- Colton – O'Connor – Meyers6:10
xG 0.14–0.06 (69%)attempts 5–5goals 1–0
- Cogliano – Olofsson – Kiviranta6:01
xG 0.00–0.06 (0%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Johansen – Wood – Nichushkin8:25
xG 0.28–0.52 (35%)attempts 15–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestToews – Makar16:14
xG 0.64–0.05 (93%)attempts 23–10goals 1–1
- Johnson – Manson3:45
xG 0.18–0.00 (99%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Johnson – Girard9:28
xG 0.47–0.35 (58%)attempts 15–10goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 83% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).