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Ice Lab

Tue, Jan 2, 2024·Ball Arena, Denver

New York Islanders 4, Colorado Avalanche 5 (OT)

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 83% of the time.

COL winsNYI wins

Play-by-play

Model-based

Every event the NHL recorded. Goals show how much they moved the win probability, and who was on the ice.

  1. P1 0:00Period start
  2. P1 0:45Shot by Barzal, saved by Georgiev
  3. P1 1:20Shot by MacKinnon, saved by Varlamov
  4. P1 2:16Shot by Wood, saved by Varlamov
  5. P1 3:06Shot by Gauthier, saved by Georgiev
  6. P1 4:33Shot by Manson, saved by Varlamov
  7. P1 4:50Shot by MacKinnon, saved by Varlamov
  8. P1 4:59Shot by Manson, saved by Varlamov
  9. P1 5:39Goal by Engvall (Nelson)+15 pts WP

    On ice: COL Johnson, Johansen, Wood, Nichushkin, Girard · NYI Bortuzzo, Palmieri, Nelson, Engvall, Bolduc

  10. P1 5:46Shot by O'Connor, saved by Varlamov
  11. P1 6:11Goal by Toews (O'Connor, Makar)+15 pts WP

    On ice: COL Toews, Colton, Makar, O'Connor, Meyers · NYI Pageau, Reilly, Mayfield, Gauthier, Holmstrom

  12. P1 7:47Reilly: Hooking (2 min)

    On ice: COL Johansen, Wood, Nichushkin, Toews, Makar · NYI Palmieri, Nelson, Reilly, Mayfield, Engvall

  13. P1 8:41Shot by Rantanen, saved by Varlamov5v4
  14. P1 11:01Shot by Horvat, saved by Georgiev
  15. P1 11:49Shot by Girard, saved by Varlamov
  16. P1 12:20Shot by Mayfield, saved by Georgiev
  17. P1 12:36Shot by Meyers, saved by Varlamov
  18. P1 13:38Shot by MacKinnon, saved by Varlamov
  19. P1 14:49Shot by Olofsson, saved by Varlamov6v5
  20. P1 14:52Mayfield: Cross checking (2 min)6v5

    On ice: COL Cogliano, MacKinnon, Olofsson, Toews, Makar, Kiviranta · NYI Pageau, Reilly, Mayfield, Gauthier, Holmstrom

  21. P1 17:12Shot by Dobson, saved by Georgiev
  22. P1 17:32Shot by Wood, saved by Sorokin
  23. P1 17:33Shot by Colton, saved by Sorokin
  24. P1 17:44Shot by MacKinnon, saved by Sorokin
  25. P1 18:49Shot by Pageau, saved by Georgiev
  26. P1 19:03Shot by Manson, saved by Sorokin
  27. P1 19:13MacKinnon: Roughing (2 min)

    On ice: COL Manson, MacKinnon, Nichushkin, Rantanen, Byram · NYI Clutterbuck, Cizikas, Mayfield, Fasching, Dobson

  28. P1 19:28Goal by Nelson (Dobson, Sorokin)4v5+18 pts WP

    On ice: COL Cogliano, Toews, Makar, O'Connor · NYI Palmieri, Nelson, Horvat, Barzal, Dobson

  29. P1 0:00Period end
  30. P2 0:00Period start
  31. P2 0:48Shot by MacKinnon, saved by Sorokin
  32. P2 1:00Shot by Rantanen, saved by Sorokin
  33. P2 1:09Goal by Holmstrom (Clutterbuck)+16 pts WP

    On ice: COL MacKinnon, Drouin, Toews, Rantanen, Makar · NYI Clutterbuck, Pageau, Dobson, Romanov, Holmstrom

  34. P2 2:13Shot by Horvat, saved by Georgiev
  35. P2 2:14Barzal: High sticking (2 min)

    On ice: COL Johansen, Manson, Wood, Nichushkin, Byram · NYI Bortuzzo, Lee, Horvat, Barzal, Bolduc

  36. P2 3:35Shot by Pageau, saved by Georgiev5v4
  37. P2 4:15Shot by Girard, saved by Sorokin
  38. P2 4:18Goal by Nichushkin (Girard, Drouin)+17 pts WP

    On ice: COL Drouin, Nichushkin, Toews, Rantanen, Girard · NYI Clutterbuck, Bortuzzo, Cizikas, Barzal, Dobson

  39. P2 4:48Shot by Mayfield, saved by Georgiev
  40. P2 5:40Shot by Palmieri, saved by Georgiev
  41. P2 5:41Cogliano: Holding (2 min)

    On ice: COL Johnson, Cogliano, Olofsson, Girard, Kiviranta · NYI Palmieri, Nelson, Reilly, Bolduc, Holmstrom

  42. P2 7:59Shot by Cizikas, saved by Georgiev
  43. P2 8:24Goal by Drouin (Rantanen, MacKinnon)+20 pts WP

    On ice: COL Johnson, MacKinnon, Drouin, Rantanen, Girard · NYI Clutterbuck, Cizikas, Mayfield, Fasching, Romanov

  44. P2 8:47Shot by Toews, saved by Sorokin
  45. P2 9:00Shot by Pageau, saved by Georgiev
  46. P2 9:20Shot by Johnson, saved by Sorokin
  47. P2 10:18Goal by Romanov (Barzal)+21 pts WP

    On ice: COL Johnson, MacKinnon, Rantanen, Girard, Meyers · NYI Lee, Horvat, Barzal, Dobson, Romanov

  48. P2 10:48Shot by Toews, saved by Sorokin
  49. P2 11:29Shot by Manson, saved by Sorokin
  50. P2 17:55Shot by Pageau, saved by Georgiev
  51. P2 19:55Shot by Makar, saved by Sorokin
  52. P2 0:00Period end
  53. P3 0:00Period start
  54. P3 2:43Shot by Fasching, saved by Georgiev
  55. P3 3:58Shot by Rantanen, saved by Sorokin
  56. P3 4:37Shot by Engvall, saved by Georgiev
  57. P3 7:18Shot by O'Connor, saved by Sorokin
  58. P3 8:52Shot by Cizikas, saved by Georgiev
  59. P3 8:53Kiviranta: Too many men on the ice (2 min)

    On ice: COL Cogliano, Olofsson, Girard, Byram, Kiviranta · NYI Cizikas, Fasching, Barzal, Dobson, Bolduc

  60. P3 9:35Shot by O'Connor, saved by Sorokin4v5
  61. P3 10:27Shot by Bolduc, saved by Georgiev4v5
  62. P3 10:47Reilly: Interference (2 min)4v5

    On ice: COL Johnson, Cogliano, O'Connor, Byram · NYI Lee, Pageau, Reilly, Engvall, Bolduc

  63. P3 11:23Shot by Makar, saved by Sorokin5v4
  64. P3 11:24Shot by Nichushkin, saved by Sorokin5v4
  65. P3 12:21Goal by Nichushkin (MacKinnon, Makar)5v4+31 pts WP

    On ice: COL MacKinnon, Drouin, Nichushkin, Rantanen, Makar · NYI Clutterbuck, Cizikas, Mayfield, Romanov

  66. P3 13:46Shot by Toews, saved by Sorokin
  67. P3 17:32Shot by Rantanen, saved by Sorokin
  68. P3 17:42Shot by Byram, saved by Sorokin
  69. P3 19:08Shot by Reilly, saved by Georgiev
  70. P3 19:23Shot by Manson, saved by Sorokin
  71. P3 19:37Shot by Nichushkin, saved by Sorokin
  72. P3 19:38Mayfield: Holding (2 min)

    On ice: COL MacKinnon, Nichushkin, Toews, Rantanen, Byram · NYI Clutterbuck, Pageau, Mayfield, Romanov, Holmstrom

  73. P3 19:44Shot by MacKinnon, saved by Sorokin5v4
  74. P3 0:00Period end5v4
  75. OT 0:00Period start
  76. OT 0:32Goal by MacKinnon (Makar, Rantanen)4v3+45 pts WP

    On ice: COL MacKinnon, Nichushkin, Rantanen, Makar · NYI Cizikas, Dobson, Romanov

  77. OT 0:32Period end3v4
  78. OT 0:32Final4v4