Wed, Jan 3, 2024·Capital One Arena, Washington
New Jersey Devils 6, Washington Capitals 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 28 | 212 | 28 | 628 |
| WSH | 19 | 210 | 07 | 326 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:03NJDNico HischierAssists: Colin Miller, Nico Daws · Snap, 0.20 xG1–0
- P1 9:50NJDNico HischierPPAssists: Luke Hughes, Jack Hughes · Tip-in, 0.10 xG2–0
- P1 18:38WSHConnor McMichaelPPAssists: Rasmus Sandin, Anthony Mantha · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–1
- P2 8:08NJDDawson MercerAssists: Erik Haula, Nico Hischier · Snap, 0.16 xG3–1
- P2 11:25WSHEvgeny KuznetsovAssists: Alex Ovechkin, Martin Fehérváry · Snap, 0.24 xG3–2
- P2 18:58WSHJohn CarlsonPPAssists: Evgeny Kuznetsov, Alex Ovechkin · Slap, 0.05 xG3–3
- P2 19:44NJDMichael McLeodGWGAssists: Alexander Holtz · Backhand, 0.08 xG4–3
- P3 7:16NJDDawson MercerAssists: Erik Haula, Nathan Bastian · Snap, 0.19 xG5–3
- P3 15:35NJDMichael McLeodAssists: Alexander Holtz, Curtis Lazar · Backhand, 0.16 xG6–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 9:15WSHMax Pacioretty: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 16:55NJDNathan Bastian: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 17:29NJDColin Miller: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 3:22NJDJonas Siegenthaler: Hooking2 min
- P3 5:08WSHAlex Ovechkin: Tripping2 min
- P3 19:51NJDBrendan Smith: Boarding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hischier won the faceoff against McMichael
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestHaula – Hischier – Mercer14:58
xG 1.11–0.42 (72%)attempts 18–12goals 2–0
- Lazar – McLeod – Holtz11:18
xG 0.51–0.19 (73%)attempts 14–6goals 2–0
- Toffoli – Bratt – Hughes13:05
xG 0.24–0.37 (39%)attempts 14–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSiegenthaler – Nemec14:34
xG 0.57–0.12 (83%)attempts 17–4goals 1–0
- Marino – Bahl2:46
xG 0.44–0.05 (90%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Miller – Bahl11:10
xG 0.59–0.24 (71%)attempts 14–8goals 2–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestDowd – Aube-Kubel – Malenstyn8:59
xG 0.26–0.19 (58%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
- Aube-Kubel – Malenstyn – Phillips2:07
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
- Mantha – McMichael – Protas9:09
xG 0.34–0.43 (44%)attempts 6–9goals 0–2
- Ovechkin – Kuznetsov – Wilson13:39
xG 0.32–0.71 (31%)attempts 14–14goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestJensen – van Riemsdyk14:36
xG 0.83–0.50 (62%)attempts 10–13goals 1–1
- Carlson – Fehérváry14:36
xG 0.03–0.49 (5%)attempts 5–18goals 0–1
- Bear – Sandin14:56
xG 0.33–1.31 (20%)attempts 11–19goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).