Wed, Jan 3, 2024·Honda Center, Anaheim
Toronto Maple Leafs 2, Anaheim Ducks 1 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 89% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 018 | 015 | 122 | 12 | 257 |
| ANA | 09 | 110 | 07 | 02 | 128 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 11:41ANAFrank VatranoSHAssists: Mason McTavish, Jamie Drysdale · Backhand, 0.19 xG0–1
- P3 14:17TORJohn TavaresPPAssists: Morgan Rielly, William Nylander · Snap, 0.43 xG1–1
- OT 2:12TORAuston MatthewsGWGAssists: Mitch Marner, Morgan Rielly · Snap, 0.30 xG2–1
Penalties (14)
- P1 3:00ANAJamie Drysdale: Slashing2 min
- P2 6:37ANAIlya Lyubushkin: Instigator2 min
- P2 6:37TORBobby McMann: Boarding5 min
- P2 6:37TORBobby McMann: Fighting5 min
- P2 6:37ANAIlya Lyubushkin: Fighting5 min
- P2 6:37TORBobby McMann: Game misconduct10 min
- P2 6:37ANAIlya Lyubushkin: Instigator misconduct10 min
- P2 10:57ANAAlex Killorn: Roughing2 min
- P2 15:17ANATrevor Zegras: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 0:44TORSimon Benoit: High sticking2 min
- P3 8:05ANAFrank Vatrano: Roughing2 min
- P3 8:05TORTyler Bertuzzi: Roughing2 min
- P3 9:25ANAMax Jones: Slashing2 min
- P3 12:55ANAJamie Drysdale: Cross checking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Henrique won the faceoff against Matthews
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestMarner – Matthews – Knies10:43
xG 1.14–0.61 (65%)attempts 21–5goals 0–0
- Tavares – Bertuzzi – Nylander9:15
xG 0.42–0.40 (52%)attempts 15–10goals 0–0
- Gregor – Kampf – McMann5:35
xG 0.10–0.09 (54%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Jarnkrok – Domi – Holmberg4:03
xG 0.06–0.05 (55%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGiordano – Liljegren8:50
xG 0.48–0.06 (89%)attempts 13–4goals 0–0
- McCabe – Benoit10:59
xG 0.64–0.44 (59%)attempts 20–9goals 0–0
- Rielly – Liljegren2:19
xG 0.16–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestKillorn – Vatrano – McTavish11:48
xG 0.55–0.28 (66%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
- Henrique – Jones – Zegras9:55
xG 0.79–0.81 (49%)attempts 6–15goals 0–0
- Silfverberg – Carrick – Groulx5:19
xG 0.03–0.16 (17%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- McGinn – Lundeström – Leason8:04
xG 0.02–0.63 (2%)attempts 7–20goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLaCombe – Drysdale13:28
xG 0.53–0.31 (63%)attempts 12–16goals 0–0
- Lyubushkin – Mintyukov7:51
xG 0.11–0.32 (25%)attempts 3–10goals 0–0
- Fowler – Vaakanainen14:53
xG 0.54–1.07 (34%)attempts 9–22goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 89% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).