Thu, Jan 4, 2024·Centre Bell, Montreal
Buffalo Sabres 6, Montréal Canadiens 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 013 | 214 | 411 | 638 |
| MTL | 015 | 16 | 012 | 133 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 5:33BUFCasey MittelstadtPPAssists: Jeff Skinner, Rasmus Dahlin · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–0
- P2 6:59BUFJeff SkinnerPPGWGAssists: Alex Tuch, Tage Thompson · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–0
- P2 13:19MTLJoel ArmiaSHUnassisted · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–1
- P3 6:45BUFJack QuinnAssists: JJ Peterka, Connor Clifton · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–1
- P3 8:35BUFTage ThompsonAssists: Jeff Skinner, Alex Tuch · Tip-in, 0.14 xG4–1
- P3 14:31BUFRasmus DahlinENAssists: Mattias Samuelsson, Casey Mittelstadt · Wrist, 0.31 xG5–1
- P3 18:32BUFTage ThompsonAssists: Jeff Skinner, Jack Quinn · Wrist, 0.08 xG6–1
Penalties (11)
- P1 13:16MTLJoel Armia: Hooking2 min
- P1 15:19BUFVictor Olofsson: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 5:00MTLDavid Savard: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 6:14MTLMitchell Stephens: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 12:14MTLMichael Pezzetta: Tripping2 min
- P2 17:59BUFDylan Cozens: Tripping2 min
- P3 13:19BUFDylan Cozens: Roughing2 min
- P3 13:19MTLDavid Savard: Roughing2 min
- P3 13:19MTLMike Matheson: Roughing2 min
- P3 13:19BUFDylan Cozens: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:43BUFZach Benson: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Suzuki won the faceoff against Thompson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestGreenway – Mittelstadt – Benson11:48
xG 0.61–0.07 (90%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Girgensons – Olofsson – Krebs8:02
xG 0.62–0.22 (74%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
- Skinner – Tuch – Thompson9:51
xG 0.40–0.09 (81%)attempts 15–6goals 1–0
- Cozens – Quinn – Peterka6:40
xG 0.98–1.60 (38%)attempts 10–12goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestClifton – Samuelsson14:12
xG 1.29–0.70 (65%)attempts 22–10goals 1–0
- Jokiharju – Dahlin13:07
xG 0.83–0.45 (65%)attempts 19–12goals 0–0
- Johnson – Power11:33
xG 0.44–0.08 (85%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestGallagher – Evans – Ylonen6:09
xG 1.57–0.85 (65%)attempts 11–11goals 0–1
- Armia – Anderson – Monahan2:39
xG 0.41–0.07 (86%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Suzuki – Caufield – Slafkovský12:06
xG 0.25–0.40 (38%)attempts 11–14goals 0–0
- Gallagher – Anderson – Monahan3:28
xG 0.05–0.24 (16%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGuhle – Barron9:34
xG 1.40–0.13 (92%)attempts 14–1goals 0–0
- Harris – Struble9:27
xG 0.63–0.35 (64%)attempts 15–9goals 0–1
- Struble – Barron4:19
xG 0.07–0.09 (44%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).