Thu, Jan 4, 2024·Mullett Arena, Tempe
New York Islanders 5, Arizona Coyotes 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 211 | 06 | 314 | 531 |
| ARI | 010 | 113 | 04 | 127 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:56NYIBo HorvatPPAssists: Noah Dobson, Brock Nelson · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–0
- P1 12:02NYIMike ReillyGWGAssists: Mathew Barzal, Bo Horvat · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–0
- P2 3:29ARINick SchmaltzPPAssists: Sean Durzi, Alexander Kerfoot · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–1
- P3 4:29NYIAnders LeeAssists: Mathew Barzal · Wrist, 0.14 xG3–1
- P3 5:22NYIJulien GauthierAssists: Simon Holmstrom, Noah Dobson · Wrist, 0.03 xG4–1
- P3 13:05NYIBo HorvatUnassisted · Wrist, 0.09 xG5–1
Penalties (4)
- P1 7:45ARINick Bjugstad: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 1:25NYIMike Reilly: Cross checking2 min
- P2 3:16NYICal Clutterbuck: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 16:07ARIMathew Dumba: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cizikas won the faceoff against Kerfoot
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestPalmieri – Nelson – Engvall11:46
xG 0.79–0.44 (64%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
- Lee – Horvat – Barzal13:01
xG 0.58–0.25 (70%)attempts 15–9goals 1–0
- Pageau – Gauthier – Holmstrom6:54
xG 0.03–0.11 (24%)attempts 5–6goals 1–0
- Clutterbuck – Martin – Cizikas10:33
xG 0.44–0.61 (42%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestReilly – Aho14:48
xG 1.07–0.58 (65%)attempts 17–9goals 1–0
- Dobson – Romanov18:20
xG 0.69–0.48 (59%)attempts 18–17goals 2–0
- Mayfield – Bolduc11:38
xG 0.03–0.28 (10%)attempts 3–11goals 0–0
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestKerfoot – Schmaltz – Keller13:57
xG 0.49–0.18 (73%)attempts 20–8goals 0–0
- O'Brien – Sanford – McBain2:33
xG 0.00–0.05 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Bjugstad – Crouse – Cooley11:59
xG 0.60–0.73 (45%)attempts 13–12goals 0–1
- Carcone – McBain – Maccelli11:51
xG 0.28–1.11 (20%)attempts 8–14goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestDurzi – Moser14:48
xG 0.87–0.66 (57%)attempts 16–11goals 0–2
- Stecher – Välimäki3:15
xG 0.13–0.14 (50%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Dumba – Dermott13:04
xG 0.26–0.50 (35%)attempts 7–15goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ARI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ARI is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ARI − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).