Thu, Jan 4, 2024·T-Mobile Arena, Paradise
Florida Panthers 4, Vegas Golden Knights 1
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 112 | 214 | 110 | 436 |
| VGK | 113 | 05 | 09 | 127 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:59VGKPavel DorofeyevAssists: Mark Stone · Wrist, 0.15 xG0–1
- P1 14:15FLASam BennettPPAssists: Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Aaron Ekblad · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–1
- P2 6:15FLAMatthew TkachukPPGWGAssists: Brandon Montour, Sam Reinhart · Tip-in, 0.13 xG2–1
- P2 18:38FLACarter VerhaegheAssists: Matthew Tkachuk, Gustav Forsling · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–1
- P3 5:23FLASam ReinhartPPAssists: Matthew Tkachuk, Carter Verhaeghe · Snap, 0.23 xG4–1
Penalties (16)
- P1 8:32FLASam Reinhart: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 12:21VGKWilliam Carrier: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 15:19VGKGrigori Denisenko: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 0:35FLANiko Mikkola: High sticking2 min
- P2 1:56FLADmitry Kulikov: Tripping2 min
- P2 2:36FLAAaron Ekblad: Hooking2 min
- P2 5:26VGKZach Whitecloud: Elbowing2 min · PPG
- P2 5:26VGKZach Whitecloud: Roughing2 min
- P2 5:26FLASam Bennett: Roughing2 min
- P2 14:40VGKWilliam Carrier: Cross checking2 min
- P3 4:27VGKZach Whitecloud: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 5:48VGKBrayden Pachal: High sticking2 min
- P3 9:35FLASam Reinhart: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 14:08FLAAaron Ekblad: Slashing2 min
- P3 19:03VGKNicolas Hague: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:03FLARyan Lomberg: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bennett won the faceoff against Roy
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestStenlund – Lomberg – Lockwood6:40
xG 0.22–0.05 (82%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Reinhart – Luostarinen – Lundell5:18
xG 0.15–0.14 (53%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Verhaeghe – Bennett – Tkachuk8:38
xG 0.64–0.74 (46%)attempts 14–12goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestMontour – Mikkola8:43
xG 0.64–0.27 (70%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Ekman-Larsson – Montour2:21
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Kulikov – Mikkola4:35
xG 0.01–0.03 (19%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestMarchessault – Barbashev – Eichel6:49
xG 0.55–0.36 (60%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
- Stone – Stephenson – Dorofeyev9:33
xG 0.47–0.35 (57%)attempts 14–10goals 1–1
- Carrier – Roy – Cotter6:42
xG 0.26–0.25 (50%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Amadio – Howden – Denisenko4:39
xG 0.11–0.21 (33%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Pietrangelo – Hague9:13
xG 0.60–0.55 (52%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Martinez – Pietrangelo3:09
xG 0.16–0.13 (56%)attempts 6–5goals 0–1
- McNabb – Whitecloud10:16
xG 0.47–0.47 (50%)attempts 11–8goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VGK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VGK is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VGK − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).