Fri, Jan 5, 2024·Capital One Arena, Washington
Carolina Hurricanes 6, Washington Capitals 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 89% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 010 | 18 | 516 | 634 |
| WSH | 26 | 04 | 07 | 217 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:06WSHNic DowdAssists: Nicolas Aube-Kubel, Beck Malenstyn · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–1
- P1 16:29WSHDylan StromePPAssists: Alex Ovechkin, John Carlson · Tip-in, 0.14 xG0–2
- P2 5:17CARBrent BurnsAssists: Andrei Svechnikov, Sebastian Aho · Snap, 0.19 xG1–2
- P3 3:23CARSeth JarvisAssists: Vasily Ponomarev, Dmitry Orlov · Backhand, 0.16 xG2–2
- P3 12:41CARAndrei SvechnikovPPGWGAssists: Sebastian Aho, Brent Burns · Slap, 0.09 xG3–2
- P3 13:59CARBrent BurnsPPAssists: Andrei Svechnikov, Sebastian Aho · Slap, 0.08 xG4–2
- P3 18:11CARDmitry OrlovENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.31 xG5–2
- P3 19:01CARVasily PonomarevAssists: Jesperi Kotkaniemi · Wrist, 0.06 xG6–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 10:39WSHTrevor van Riemsdyk: Hooking2 min
- P1 11:46CARAndrei Svechnikov: Interference2 min
- P1 16:14CARJesperi Kotkaniemi: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 12:13WSHBeck Malenstyn: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 12:41WSHEvgeny Kuznetsov: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 16:37CARJaccob Slavin: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Strome
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestTeravainen – Aho – Svechnikov13:03
xG 0.89–0.27 (77%)attempts 18–7goals 1–0
- Staal – Martinook – Jarvis13:11
xG 0.36–0.05 (87%)attempts 18–8goals 0–0
- Lemieux – Kotkaniemi – Ponomarev4:50
xG 0.24–0.19 (56%)attempts 8–3goals 1–0
- Teravainen – Lemieux – Ponomarev2:17
xG 0.00–0.06 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOrlov – Chatfield12:37
xG 1.24–0.28 (82%)attempts 16–7goals 1–0
- Burns – Slavin16:41
xG 1.00–0.24 (80%)attempts 28–7goals 1–0
- Skjei – Pesce16:44
xG 0.53–0.29 (65%)attempts 19–13goals 1–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- Pacioretty – Strome – Lapierre10:15
xG 0.09–0.47 (17%)attempts 6–13goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Kuznetsov – Wilson10:20
xG 0.02–0.40 (4%)attempts 7–14goals 0–0
- Dowd – Aube-Kubel – Malenstyn11:40
xG 0.22–0.62 (26%)attempts 4–14goals 1–1
- Mantha – McMichael – Protas9:24
xG 0.44–1.24 (26%)attempts 6–18goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Edmundson – Bear2:11
xG 0.03–0.08 (25%)attempts 3–3goals 0–1
- Carlson – Fehérváry12:45
xG 0.27–0.53 (34%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
- van Riemsdyk – Bear14:08
xG 0.30–0.64 (32%)attempts 5–17goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 89% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).