Sat, Jan 6, 2024·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Calgary Flames 2, Philadelphia Flyers 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 79% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 08 | 210 | 06 | 224 |
| PHI | 09 | 224 | 19 | 342 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 1:55CGYJonathan HuberdeauAssists: Nazem Kadri, Martin Pospisil · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–0
- P2 4:15PHIMorgan FrostAssists: Sean Walker, Tyson Foerster · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–1
- P2 9:13CGYMacKenzie WeegarAssists: Blake Coleman, Andrew Mangiapane · Backhand, 0.07 xG2–1
- P2 16:06PHISean CouturierPPAssists: Morgan Frost, Egor Zamula · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–2
- P3 2:27PHITravis KonecnySHGWGAssists: Scott Laughton, Cam York · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–3
Penalties (20)
- P1 8:46PHIGarnet Hathaway: Tripping2 min
- P1 13:49PHISean Walker: Tripping2 min
- P1 16:34CGYNoah Hanifin: Cross checking2 min
- P1 18:50CGYConnor Zary: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 5:31CGYA.J. Greer: Boarding2 min
- P2 9:19CGYElias Lindholm: Roughing2 min
- P2 9:19CGYElias Lindholm: Elbowing2 min
- P2 9:19PHIJoel Farabee: Instigator2 min
- P2 9:19CGYElias Lindholm: Fighting5 min
- P2 9:19PHIJoel Farabee: Fighting5 min
- P2 9:19PHIJoel Farabee: Instigator misconduct10 min
- P2 15:45CGYMacKenzie Weegar: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 1:54PHIGarnet Hathaway: Roughing2 min
- P3 13:22CGYConnor Zary: Interference2 min
- P3 0:00CGYElias Lindholm: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:00CGYNoah Hanifin: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:00CGYJonathan Huberdeau: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:00PHITravis Konecny: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:00PHINick Seeler: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:00PHIScott Laughton: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backlund won the faceoff against Laughton
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- Kadri – Pospisil – Zary5:42
xG 0.20–0.19 (50%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Backlund – Coleman – Mangiapane11:34
xG 0.38–0.52 (42%)attempts 13–18goals 1–0
- Greer – Dube – Ruzicka4:22
xG 0.08–0.34 (19%)attempts 4–10goals 0–0
- Huberdeau – Lindholm – Sharangovich6:42
xG 0.19–0.53 (27%)attempts 8–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHanifin – Andersson2:03
xG 0.08–0.01 (92%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Oesterle – DeSimone9:16
xG 0.40–0.44 (47%)attempts 10–8goals 1–0
- Tanev – Hanifin13:31
xG 0.25–0.57 (31%)attempts 14–22goals 0–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestFrost – Brink – Foerster4:48
xG 0.39–0.17 (70%)attempts 6–9goals 1–0
- Atkinson – Laughton – Tippett6:56
xG 0.52–0.40 (57%)attempts 11–10goals 0–1
- Deslauriers – Hathaway – Poehling3:05
xG 0.10–0.11 (49%)attempts 2–3goals 0–1
- Hathaway – Frost – Foerster2:15
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRistolainen – Zamula10:23
xG 0.70–0.24 (75%)attempts 18–10goals 0–1
- Seeler – Walker12:54
xG 0.70–0.37 (65%)attempts 18–15goals 1–1
- Sanheim – York12:28
xG 0.71–0.49 (59%)attempts 12–17goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 79% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).