Sat, Jan 6, 2024·TD Garden, Boston
Tampa Bay Lightning 3, Boston Bruins 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 113 | 25 | 08 | 326 |
| BOS | 211 | 211 | 34 | 726 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:21TBLBrayden PointAssists: Nikita Kucherov · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–0
- P1 4:42BOSTrent FredericPPAssists: Kevin Shattenkirk, Hampus Lindholm · Wrist, 0.21 xG1–1
- P1 14:56BOSCharlie McAvoyAssists: Danton Heinen, Matthew Poitras · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–2
- P2 1:49BOSTrent FredericAssists: Matt Grzelcyk, Matthew Poitras · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–3
- P2 7:53TBLNikita KucherovUnassisted · Wrist, 0.36 xG2–3
- P2 8:23BOSDavid PastrnakGWGAssists: Pavel Zacha · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–4
- P2 15:53TBLBrayden PointAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Brandon Hagel · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–4
- P3 1:35BOSMorgan GeekieAssists: David Pastrnak, Hampus Lindholm · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–5
- P3 16:34BOSJake DeBruskENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.72 xG3–6
- P3 17:14BOSCharlie CoyleUnassisted · Wrist, 0.15 xG3–7
Penalties (8)
- P1 2:42TBLCalvin de Haan: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 7:03TBLBrandon Hagel: Tripping2 min
- P1 10:15BOSMorgan Geekie: Hooking2 min
- P2 1:49TBLMichael Eyssimont: Unsportsmanlike conduct bench2 min
- P2 7:16TBLPhilippe Myers: Holding2 min
- P2 7:41BOSMorgan Geekie: Interference2 min
- P3 5:34BOSMatt Grzelcyk: Hooking2 min
- P3 15:13BOSJesper Boqvist: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Geekie won the faceoff against Point
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestKucherov – Point – Hagel9:45
xG 0.51–0.29 (64%)attempts 12–5goals 2–1
- Stamkos – Paul – Cirelli5:25
xG 0.10–0.01 (92%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Sheary – Cirelli – Eyssimont2:34
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Glendening – Motte – Jeannot3:18
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestde Haan – Myers5:52
xG 0.58–0.32 (65%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Hedman – Myers2:38
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 1–0
- de Haan – Raddysh6:17
xG 0.27–0.17 (62%)attempts 6–3goals 0–1
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestHeinen – Frederic – Poitras6:20
xG 0.48–0.09 (85%)attempts 8–4goals 2–0
- Heinen – Steen – Boqvist2:42
xG 0.31–0.13 (70%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Steen – Boqvist – Lauko4:03
xG 0.06–0.01 (92%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
- Pastrnak – Zacha – Geekie10:28
xG 0.44–0.59 (43%)attempts 6–12goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestShattenkirk – Wotherspoon11:33
xG 0.49–0.14 (78%)attempts 6–12goals 0–0
- Lindholm – Carlo7:55
xG 0.30–0.10 (75%)attempts 5–4goals 1–2
- Grzelcyk – Carlo5:17
xG 0.03–0.05 (33%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).