Sat, Jan 6, 2024·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Nashville Predators 4, Dallas Stars 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 19 | 18 | 25 | 422 |
| DAL | 06 | 215 | 18 | 329 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:26NSHGustav NyquistUnassisted · Wrist, 0.22 xG1–0
- P2 7:22NSHLuke EvangelistaAssists: Tommy Novak, Cole Smith · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–0
- P2 9:29DALTyler SeguinAssists: Matt Duchene, Mason Marchment · Snap, 0.21 xG2–1
- P2 19:14DALJamie BennPPAssists: Thomas Harley, Jason Robertson · Tip-in, 0.15 xG2–2
- P3 2:42NSHFilip ForsbergAssists: Gustav Nyquist, Ryan O'Reilly · Backhand, 0.13 xG3–2
- P3 7:30NSHFilip ForsbergGWGAssists: Ryan O'Reilly, Luke Schenn · Wrap-around, 0.06 xG4–2
- P3 10:21DALJason RobertsonAssists: Joel Hanley, Thomas Harley · Wrist, 0.08 xG4–3
Penalties (4)
- P1 11:50DALEsa Lindell: Interference2 min
- P1 19:02NSHAlexandre Carrier: Tripping2 min
- P2 2:27NSHLuke Schenn: Penalty shot hooking on breakaway0 min
- P2 19:09NSHJuuso Parssinen: Interference2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Seguin won the faceoff against Sissons
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestNyquist – O'Reilly – Forsberg11:42
xG 0.63–0.09 (88%)attempts 10–6goals 3–0
- Novak – Smith – Evangelista8:10
xG 0.43–0.38 (53%)attempts 10–8goals 1–1
- McCarron – Trenin – Tomasino9:14
xG 0.34–0.69 (33%)attempts 9–15goals 0–1
- Sissons – Gurianov – Parssinen10:41
xG 0.13–0.51 (21%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcDonagh – Josi2:24
xG 0.33–0.04 (89%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Lauzon – Carrier16:11
xG 0.60–0.36 (63%)attempts 15–13goals 2–1
- McDonagh – Schenn13:33
xG 0.52–0.36 (59%)attempts 10–11goals 1–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestPavelski – Benn – Johnston6:32
xG 0.46–0.10 (82%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Pavelski – Hintz – Robertson5:26
xG 0.37–0.17 (69%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Smith – Faksa – Steel8:30
xG 0.45–0.28 (62%)attempts 14–9goals 0–0
- Dadonov – Hintz – Robertson6:06
xG 0.34–0.18 (66%)attempts 9–4goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestHanley – Harley9:23
xG 0.56–0.08 (88%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Suter – Lundkvist11:33
xG 0.78–0.37 (68%)attempts 17–10goals 0–0
- Lundkvist – Harley5:17
xG 0.19–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).