Tue, Jan 9, 2024·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Seattle Kraken 5, Buffalo Sabres 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | 215 | 35 | 06 | 526 |
| BUF | 119 | 18 | 011 | 238 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:57BUFJeff SkinnerAssists: Casey Mittelstadt, Alex Tuch · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–1
- P1 13:55SEAYanni GourdeAssists: Eeli Tolvanen, Oliver Bjorkstrand · Snap, 0.24 xG1–1
- P1 18:50SEAVince DunnPPAssists: Andre Burakovsky, Eeli Tolvanen · Snap, 0.16 xG2–1
- P2 0:50BUFAlex TuchAssists: Jeff Skinner, Casey Mittelstadt · Tip-in, 0.08 xG2–2
- P2 2:08SEAAlexander WennbergGWGAssists: Jaden Schwartz, Brian Dumoulin · Backhand, 0.11 xG3–2
- P2 11:34SEAJaden SchwartzAssists: Brandon Tanev, Will Borgen · Tip-in, 0.15 xG4–2
- P2 16:13SEAMatty BeniersAssists: Will Borgen · Wrist, 0.04 xG5–2
Penalties (2)
- P1 16:55BUFHenri Jokiharju: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 6:46SEAAndre Burakovsky: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Thompson won the faceoff against Beniers
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Seattle Kraken
Forward lines
- bestGourde – Bjorkstrand – Tolvanen10:16
xG 0.62–0.40 (61%)attempts 9–13goals 1–2
- Schwartz – Wennberg – Tanev10:37
xG 0.33–0.20 (62%)attempts 7–7goals 2–0
- Eberle – Tatar – Beniers12:01
xG 0.51–0.53 (49%)attempts 10–16goals 1–0
- Burakovsky – McCann – Kartye8:07
xG 0.34–0.57 (37%)attempts 17–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLarsson – Oleksiak2:43
xG 0.44–0.18 (71%)attempts 4–4goals 1–0
- Schultz – Dumoulin14:13
xG 0.55–0.31 (64%)attempts 13–13goals 1–0
- Oleksiak – Borgen17:09
xG 0.46–0.65 (42%)attempts 10–18goals 1–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestCozens – Quinn – Peterka12:28
xG 0.94–0.24 (79%)attempts 21–11goals 0–0
- Skinner – Tuch – Mittelstadt12:15
xG 0.62–0.37 (63%)attempts 19–7goals 2–1
- Girgensons – Robinson – Krebs9:16
xG 0.26–0.13 (67%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Greenway – Thompson – Benson10:52
xG 0.18–0.33 (35%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJokiharju – Dahlin10:52
xG 0.87–0.45 (66%)attempts 19–9goals 0–1
- Clifton – Dahlin2:04
xG 0.23–0.07 (76%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Johnson – Jokiharju2:27
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it SEA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − SEA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).