Tue, Jan 9, 2024·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
San Jose Sharks 1, Toronto Maple Leafs 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 84% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 05 | 18 | 010 | 123 |
| TOR | 216 | 219 | 311 | 746 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:48TORMorgan RiellyAssists: William Nylander, TJ Brodie · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–1
- P1 17:22TORAuston MatthewsPPGWGAssists: Mitch Marner, William Nylander · Slap, 0.06 xG0–2
- P2 0:54TORMitch MarnerAssists: Jake McCabe, Timothy Liljegren · Tip-in, 0.05 xG0–3
- P2 2:06TORPontus HolmbergAssists: Bobby McMann, David Kampf · Poke, 0.09 xG0–4
- P2 7:21SJSHenry ThrunPPAssists: Mikael Granlund, Anthony Duclair · Tip-in, 0.07 xG1–4
- P3 1:27TORJake McCabeAssists: Mitch Marner, Simon Benoit · Snap, 0.11 xG1–5
- P3 4:00TORMitch MarnerPPAssists: Morgan Rielly, William Nylander · Wrist, 0.33 xG1–6
- P3 5:54TORNick RobertsonPPAssists: Matthew Knies, Jake McCabe · Snap, 0.09 xG1–7
Penalties (3)
- P1 17:05SJSAlexander Barabanov: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 5:41TORSimon Benoit: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 3:07SJSScott Sabourin: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Tavares won the faceoff against Hertl
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- Hoffman – Sabourin – Carpenter4:33
xG 0.06–0.03 (65%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Hoffman – Hertl – Eklund5:45
xG 0.21–0.34 (38%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
- Hertl – Zadina – Eklund5:17
xG 0.22–0.44 (33%)attempts 4–10goals 0–0
- Sabourin – Carpenter – Zadina4:13
xG 0.00–0.25 (0%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Burroughs – Addison11:48
xG 0.47–0.57 (45%)attempts 9–19goals 0–0
- Ferraro – Addison2:20
xG 0.00–0.28 (0%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
- Rutta – Thrun14:07
xG 0.46–0.77 (37%)attempts 11–19goals 0–1
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestMarner – Matthews – Knies11:19
xG 0.83–0.20 (81%)attempts 21–4goals 2–0
- Jarnkrok – Domi – Robertson12:13
xG 0.60–0.28 (68%)attempts 17–6goals 0–0
- Tavares – Bertuzzi – Nylander11:38
xG 0.83–0.69 (54%)attempts 23–14goals 1–0
- Kampf – Holmberg – McMann10:56
xG 0.23–0.22 (51%)attempts 10–7goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestGiordano – Liljegren13:18
xG 0.43–0.20 (68%)attempts 21–4goals 0–0
- McCabe – Benoit13:31
xG 0.55–0.45 (55%)attempts 13–12goals 1–0
- Brodie – Rielly15:56
xG 0.70–0.60 (54%)attempts 23–16goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 84% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).