Tue, Jan 9, 2024·Enterprise Center, St. Louis
Florida Panthers 5, St. Louis Blues 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 111 | 18 | 312 | 531 |
| STL | 19 | 09 | 012 | 130 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:24STLBrayden SchennAssists: Jake Neighbours, Brandon Saad · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–1
- P1 15:56FLAKevin StenlundAssists: Jonah Gadjovich, William Lockwood · Wrist, 0.21 xG1–1
- P2 1:11FLASam ReinhartPPGWGAssists: Matthew Tkachuk, Aleksander Barkov · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–1
- P3 2:18FLAMatthew TkachukAssists: Carter Verhaeghe · Snap, 0.08 xG3–1
- P3 5:57FLAMatthew TkachukAssists: Gustav Forsling, Anton Lundell · Tip-in, 0.07 xG4–1
- P3 19:03FLAMatthew TkachukENAssists: Dmitry Kulikov · Wrist, 0.47 xG5–1
Penalties (10)
- P1 4:20STLScott Perunovich: Tripping2 min
- P1 11:36FLAMatthew Tkachuk: Tripping2 min
- P1 18:49STLPavel Buchnevich: Roughing2 min
- P1 18:49FLAOliver Ekman-Larsson: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 19:34STLJordan Kyrou: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 1:57FLASam Bennett: High sticking double minor4 min
- P2 19:48FLAAnton Lundell: High sticking2 min
- P3 7:44FLAJonah Gadjovich: Roughing2 min
- P3 7:44STLOskar Sundqvist: Boarding2 min
- P3 13:46STLRobert Thomas: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bennett won the faceoff against Schenn
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestStenlund – Lockwood – Gadjovich7:30
xG 0.27–0.14 (65%)attempts 4–9goals 1–0
- Verhaeghe – Bennett – Tkachuk10:53
xG 0.60–0.61 (49%)attempts 11–9goals 1–1
- Lomberg – Luostarinen – Lundell6:12
xG 0.19–0.29 (39%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Barkov – Reinhart – Rodrigues9:17
xG 0.20–0.53 (28%)attempts 8–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEkblad – Forsling11:40
xG 0.62–0.51 (55%)attempts 12–11goals 2–0
- Ekman-Larsson – Montour2:22
xG 0.08–0.06 (57%)attempts 2–3goals 1–0
- Ekman-Larsson – Kulikov8:19
xG 0.00–0.13 (3%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestSchenn – Saad – Neighbours6:55
xG 0.71–0.06 (92%)attempts 12–4goals 1–0
- Buchnevich – Kyrou – Thomas11:13
xG 0.70–0.37 (66%)attempts 12–11goals 0–0
- Sundqvist – Walker – Toropchenko4:40
xG 0.11–0.12 (48%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Schenn – Walker – Neighbours2:36
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Parayko – Perunovich2:21
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Leddy – Parayko12:03
xG 0.66–0.66 (50%)attempts 13–14goals 1–2
- Krug – Kessel11:46
xG 0.21–0.26 (45%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).