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Ice Lab

Tue, Jan 9, 2024·Mullett Arena, Tempe

Boston Bruins 3, Arizona Coyotes 4 (OT)

Away

Boston Bruins

3

Final

Overtime

Home

Arizona Coyotes

4

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 60% of the time.

ARI winsBOS wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTTotal
BOS1611111402333
ARI01221111112436

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 4:41BOSDavid PastrnakPPAssists: Pavel Zacha, Morgan Geekie · Snap, 0.06 xG1–0
  2. P2 8:12ARIClayton KellerPPAssists: Dylan Guenther · Wrist, 0.24 xG1–1
  3. P2 9:02BOSJesper BoqvistUnassisted · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–1
  4. P2 16:30ARIDylan GuentherAssists: Logan Cooley, Nick Bjugstad · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–2
  5. P3 0:52ARIMatias MaccelliAssists: Lawson Crouse · Wrist, 0.21 xG2–3
  6. P3 5:04BOSJake DeBruskPPAssists: Hampus Lindholm, Morgan Geekie · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–3
  7. OT 4:04ARINick SchmaltzGWGAssists: Clayton Keller, J.J. Moser · Wrist, 0.13 xG3–4
Penalties (15)
  1. P1 1:18BOSTrent Frederic: Holding2 min
  2. P1 3:58ARIMathew Dumba: Hooking2 min · PPG
  3. P1 10:54BOSBrad Marchand: Cross checking2 min
  4. P1 10:54ARINick Schmaltz: Roughing2 min
  5. P1 10:54BOSBrad Marchand: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
  6. P1 10:54ARIClayton Keller: Cross checking2 min
  7. P2 2:11ARILiam O'Brien: Roughing2 min
  8. P2 2:11ARILiam O'Brien: Fighting5 min
  9. P2 2:11BOSTrent Frederic: Fighting5 min
  10. P2 7:23BOSMatt Grzelcyk: Tripping2 min · PPG
  11. P3 3:13ARILawson Crouse: Broken stick2 min · PPG
  12. P3 5:55ARISean Durzi: High sticking2 min
  13. P3 11:29BOSPavel Zacha: High sticking2 min
  14. OT 0:54ARIMathew Dumba: Holding2 min
  15. OT 0:54BOSCharlie Coyle: Holding2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

BOS00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0ARI
46% to win54% to win
← BOS attackARI attack →
  1. P1 20:00McBain won the faceoff against Coyle
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

BOSARI
33Shots on goal36
3.4Expected goals4.0
61Shot attempts66
39Faceoffs won28
4Power plays3
17Penalty minutes19
23Hits25
13Blocked shots17
3Giveaways9
8Takeaways8

Line combinations that worked

Model-based

Each team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.

Boston Bruins

Forward lines

  1. bestMarchand – Coyle – Pastrnak8:47

    xG 1.05–0.44 (71%)attempts 14–9goals 0–1

  2. Heinen – Boqvist – Beecher4:11

    xG 0.05–0.19 (19%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0

  3. van Riemsdyk – Frederic – Poitras4:15

    xG 0.08–0.27 (22%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0

  4. Pastrnak – Zacha – Geekie2:34

    xG 0.00–0.85 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–0

Defence pairs

  1. bestShattenkirk – Lindholm2:35

    xG 0.29–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0

  2. Lindholm – McAvoy4:32

    xG 0.13–0.01 (92%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0

  3. Shattenkirk – Grzelcyk7:13

    xG 0.21–0.16 (57%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0

Arizona Coyotes

Forward lines

  1. bestKerfoot – Crouse – Maccelli10:56

    xG 1.61–0.79 (67%)attempts 14–13goals 1–0

  2. Schmaltz – Keller – McBain10:16

    xG 0.67–0.39 (64%)attempts 17–6goals 0–0

  3. O'Brien – Kirkland – Carcone4:16

    xG 0.16–0.10 (61%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0

  4. Bjugstad – Guenther – Cooley10:45

    xG 0.20–0.29 (41%)attempts 12–8goals 1–0

Defence pairs

  1. bestDurzi – Moser17:51

    xG 1.83–0.42 (81%)attempts 28–15goals 2–0

  2. Stecher – Kesselring9:31

    xG 0.27–0.08 (78%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0

  3. Dumba – Dermott15:13

    xG 0.41–1.27 (24%)attempts 11–22goals 0–1

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

ARI 4.0 xGBOS 3.4 xG
01234P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

ARIBOS

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

ARI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ARI is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.

Excitement 90/100 · #161 of 1312 this seasonSwing 2.45 · 7 goals in reachComeback index 30% (winner's lowest chance)
BOS 100%5050%50ARI 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +27 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 60% of the time.

ARI winsBOS wins

Simulated goal difference (ARI − BOS), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).