Tue, Jan 9, 2024·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Ottawa Senators 3, Calgary Flames 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 213 | 17 | 013 | 333 |
| CGY | 115 | 111 | 410 | 636 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:09OTTJacob Bernard-DockerAssists: Vladimir Tarasenko, Ridly Greig · Slap, 0.03 xG1–0
- P1 4:53CGYConnor ZaryUnassisted · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–1
- P1 19:57OTTDominik KubalikAssists: Ridly Greig, Jakob Chychrun · Wrist, 0.20 xG2–1
- P2 3:50CGYYegor SharangovichAssists: Jonathan Huberdeau, Elias Lindholm · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–2
- P2 12:39OTTBrady TkachukPPAssists: Claude Giroux, Drake Batherson · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–2
- P3 0:47CGYNoah HanifinAssists: Martin Pospisil, Connor Zary · Backhand, 0.02 xG3–3
- P3 8:57CGYBlake ColemanGWGAssists: Noah Hanifin, Nazem Kadri · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–4
- P3 15:45CGYYegor SharangovichAssists: Noah Hanifin, Nazem Kadri · Snap, 0.16 xG3–5
- P3 17:12CGYBlake ColemanENAssists: Mikael Backlund · Wrist, 0.76 xG3–6
Penalties (5)
- P1 12:56OTTMathieu Joseph: Tripping2 min
- P1 14:59CGYJonathan Huberdeau: High sticking2 min
- P2 11:24CGYMartin Pospisil: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 14:30CGYAndrew Mangiapane: Interference2 min
- P2 18:17OTTJosh Norris: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Norris won the faceoff against Backlund
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestTarasenko – Kubalik – Greig9:53
xG 1.15–0.43 (73%)attempts 10–11goals 2–0
- MacEwen – Kastelic – Kelly6:49
xG 0.25–0.04 (86%)attempts 10–4goals 0–1
- Giroux – Batherson – Stützle12:22
xG 0.39–0.29 (57%)attempts 15–11goals 0–1
- Joseph – Norris – Tkachuk11:51
xG 0.99–1.02 (49%)attempts 9–19goals 0–3
Defence pairs
- bestHamonic – Chabot13:44
xG 1.54–0.72 (68%)attempts 15–17goals 0–1
- Chychrun – Sanderson17:09
xG 1.12–0.84 (57%)attempts 22–17goals 1–3
- Chabot – Brannstrom2:46
xG 0.08–0.04 (67%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestKadri – Pospisil – Zary9:13
xG 0.28–0.02 (92%)attempts 9–3goals 2–0
- Backlund – Coleman – Mangiapane12:07
xG 0.58–0.71 (45%)attempts 18–17goals 0–1
- Greer – Ruzicka – Duehr7:15
xG 0.05–0.29 (14%)attempts 5–9goals 0–1
- Huberdeau – Lindholm – Sharangovich11:43
xG 0.57–1.21 (32%)attempts 11–13goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestTanev – Hanifin17:52
xG 1.07–0.98 (52%)attempts 17–14goals 3–0
- DeSimone – Kuznetsov11:13
xG 0.33–0.36 (48%)attempts 10–9goals 0–1
- Weegar – Andersson17:15
xG 0.56–1.44 (28%)attempts 21–20goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).