Wed, Jan 10, 2024·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Minnesota Wild 2, Dallas Stars 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 06 | 03 | 214 | 223 |
| DAL | 18 | 216 | 410 | 734 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:45DALJoe PavelskiUnassisted · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–1
- P2 4:28DALMatt DucheneAssists: Ryan Suter, Nils Lundkvist · Snap, 0.25 xG0–2
- P2 14:59DALRoope HintzGWGAssists: Mason Marchment, Esa Lindell · Snap, 0.24 xG0–3
- P3 4:22MINMatt BoldyAssists: Brock Faber, Joel Eriksson Ek · Deflected, 0.10 xG1–3
- P3 8:05DALJason RobertsonAssists: Esa Lindell · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–4
- P3 9:26DALNils LundkvistAssists: Radek Faksa · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–5
- P3 11:03MINRyan HartmanPPAssists: Mats Zuccarello, Matt Boldy · Snap, 0.17 xG2–5
- P3 16:10DALTyler SeguinAssists: Mason Marchment · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–6
- P3 18:17DALSam SteelAssists: Esa Lindell, Craig Smith · Snap, 0.14 xG2–7
Penalties (6)
- P1 8:59MINMats Zuccarello: Tripping2 min
- P2 13:01MINMatt Boldy: Interference2 min
- P2 13:01DALJason Robertson: Embellishment2 min
- P2 17:23MINBrock Faber: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 9:45DALJoel Hanley: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P3 10:19DALTyler Seguin: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Seguin won the faceoff against Eriksson Ek
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestPetan – Duhaime – Dewar6:18
xG 0.16–0.09 (63%)attempts 8–3goals 0–1
- Maroon – Foligno – Gaudreau11:30
xG 0.30–0.42 (41%)attempts 9–14goals 0–1
- Zuccarello – Eriksson Ek – Boldy11:40
xG 0.24–0.68 (26%)attempts 10–16goals 1–2
- Johansson – Hartman – Rossi10:41
xG 0.16–0.70 (19%)attempts 15–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGoligoski – Bogosian15:56
xG 0.38–0.22 (63%)attempts 17–9goals 0–0
- Bogosian – Mermis2:55
xG 0.00–0.07 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Merrill – Mermis9:55
xG 0.18–0.36 (34%)attempts 8–9goals 0–2
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestDuchene – Seguin – Marchment10:43
xG 0.77–0.26 (74%)attempts 10–18goals 1–0
- Smith – Faksa – Steel9:27
xG 0.52–0.13 (80%)attempts 13–7goals 2–0
- Pavelski – Hintz – Robertson9:36
xG 0.59–0.21 (73%)attempts 15–7goals 1–1
- Benn – Dadonov – Johnston10:52
xG 0.17–0.27 (40%)attempts 7–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Lundkvist12:37
xG 0.66–0.42 (61%)attempts 14–21goals 3–0
- Hakanpää – Lindell15:15
xG 0.65–0.42 (61%)attempts 18–20goals 1–1
- Hanley – Harley11:55
xG 0.24–0.03 (90%)attempts 9–4goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).