Thu, Jan 11, 2024·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Anaheim Ducks 3, Carolina Hurricanes 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 01 | 312 | 03 | 316 |
| CAR | 216 | 39 | 19 | 634 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:00CARBrady SkjeiAssists: Seth Jarvis, Jordan Staal · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–1
- P1 16:15CARAndrei SvechnikovAssists: Sebastian Aho, Teuvo Teravainen · Snap, 0.09 xG0–2
- P2 0:25ANAIsac LundeströmAssists: Brett Leason, Brock McGinn · Snap, 0.29 xG1–2
- P2 1:57CARJordan MartinookAssists: Seth Jarvis · Snap, 0.29 xG1–3
- P2 10:06ANARyan StromeAssists: Troy Terry · Bat, 0.20 xG2–3
- P2 10:53ANAFrank VatranoPPAssists: Adam Henrique · Snap, 0.09 xG3–3
- P2 14:30CARStefan NoesenGWGAssists: Michael Bunting, Jesperi Kotkaniemi · Backhand, 0.10 xG3–4
- P2 16:41CARJack DruryPPAssists: Stefan Noesen, Teuvo Teravainen · Snap, 0.23 xG3–5
- P3 9:54CARSeth JarvisAssists: Brent Burns, Jordan Martinook · Tip-in, 0.08 xG3–6
Penalties (12)
- P1 11:03ANAUrho Vaakanainen: Tripping2 min
- P2 5:19ANARobert Hagg: Tripping2 min
- P2 5:19ANARobert Hagg: Roughing2 min
- P2 5:19CARJordan Martinook: Roughing2 min
- P2 10:50CARPyotr Kochetkov: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 11:41CARJordan Staal: Interference2 min
- P2 14:44ANASam Carrick: Boarding2 min · PPG
- P2 14:44CARBrendan Lemieux: Fighting5 min
- P2 14:44ANASam Carrick: Fighting5 min
- P3 5:31CARJordan Martinook: High sticking2 min
- P3 10:33CARJalen Chatfield: Holding2 min
- P3 18:25CARJack Drury: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lundeström won the faceoff against Kotkaniemi
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestMcGinn – Lundeström – Leason9:38
xG 0.65–0.40 (62%)attempts 10–10goals 1–0
- Henrique – Strome – Terry9:48
xG 0.41–0.40 (51%)attempts 6–10goals 1–1
- Silfverberg – Carrick – Groulx6:49
xG 0.00–0.03 (3%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Killorn – Vatrano – McTavish9:32
xG 0.19–0.85 (19%)attempts 5–10goals 0–3
Defence pairs
- bestGudas – LaCombe13:15
xG 0.92–0.50 (65%)attempts 14–11goals 2–1
- Hagg – Lyubushkin11:04
xG 0.06–0.23 (20%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Fowler – Vaakanainen15:02
xG 0.42–0.71 (37%)attempts 5–16goals 0–2
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestStaal – Martinook – Jarvis8:11
xG 0.85–0.04 (96%)attempts 10–4goals 3–0
- Teravainen – Aho – Svechnikov10:40
xG 0.47–0.38 (55%)attempts 10–6goals 1–1
- Fast – Lemieux – Drury6:26
xG 0.03–0.00 (97%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Noesen – Bunting – Kotkaniemi10:54
xG 0.53–1.17 (31%)attempts 12–14goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestSkjei – Pesce13:27
xG 0.60–0.31 (66%)attempts 13–4goals 2–1
- Orlov – Chatfield13:09
xG 0.62–0.53 (54%)attempts 14–7goals 1–1
- Burns – Slavin13:45
xG 0.37–0.66 (36%)attempts 14–13goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).