Thu, Jan 11, 2024·Amerant Bank Arena, Sunrise
Los Angeles Kings 2, Florida Panthers 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 85% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 112 | 111 | 09 | 01 | 233 |
| FLA | 017 | 110 | 110 | 14 | 341 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:17LAKTrevor MooreAssists: Phillip Danault, Kevin Fiala · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–0
- P2 10:58FLASam BennettAssists: Eetu Luostarinen, Oliver Ekman-Larsson · Tip-in, 0.13 xG1–1
- P2 19:39LAKDrew DoughtyPPAssists: Adrian Kempe, Anze Kopitar · Slap, 0.06 xG2–1
- P3 17:42FLAMatthew TkachukAssists: Carter Verhaeghe, Sam Reinhart · Snap, 0.25 xG2–2
- OT 4:59FLASam ReinhartPPGWGAssists: Aleksander Barkov, Sergei Bobrovsky · Backhand, 0.19 xG2–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 17:24LAKPierre-Luc Dubois: Roughing2 min
- P2 1:15FLASam Reinhart: Tripping2 min
- P2 7:08FLADmitry Kulikov: Roughing2 min
- P2 7:08LAKAdrian Kempe: Roughing2 min
- P2 8:56LAKKevin Fiala: Slashing2 min
- P2 19:32FLAAaron Ekblad: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 13:34FLAGustav Forsling: Tripping2 min
- OT 3:37LAKAdrian Kempe: Cross checking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Danault won the faceoff against Bennett
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- Dubois – Kaliyev – Laferriere10:07
xG 0.49–0.50 (50%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
- Kopitar – Kempe – Byfield11:55
xG 0.27–0.44 (38%)attempts 13–15goals 0–0
- Danault – Fiala – Moore13:05
xG 0.37–0.59 (38%)attempts 12–12goals 1–1
- Lewis – Grundstrom – Lizotte7:32
xG 0.04–0.59 (6%)attempts 8–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Englund – Spence9:01
xG 0.49–0.47 (51%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
- Gavrikov – Spence4:11
xG 0.00–0.05 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Gavrikov – Roy14:34
xG 0.25–0.35 (42%)attempts 15–13goals 0–0
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestLomberg – Luostarinen – Lundell9:49
xG 0.77–0.21 (78%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
- Verhaeghe – Bennett – Tkachuk11:57
xG 0.69–0.30 (70%)attempts 16–10goals 0–1
- Barkov – Reinhart – Rodrigues11:21
xG 0.45–0.20 (70%)attempts 15–11goals 0–0
- Stenlund – Lockwood – Gadjovich6:02
xG 0.04–0.36 (11%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMontour – Mikkola16:28
xG 0.87–0.35 (71%)attempts 20–14goals 0–1
- Ekblad – Forsling15:28
xG 0.60–0.25 (71%)attempts 21–13goals 0–0
- Ekman-Larsson – Kulikov10:36
xG 0.68–0.51 (57%)attempts 16–13goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 85% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).