Thu, Jan 11, 2024·Enterprise Center, St. Louis
New York Rangers 2, St. Louis Blues 5
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 114 | 014 | 115 | 243 |
| STL | 28 | 17 | 25 | 520 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:51NYRAdam FoxAssists: Barclay Goodrow, Ryan Lindgren · Wrist, 0.20 xG1–0
- P1 4:02STLJordan KyrouAssists: Robert Thomas, Pavel Buchnevich · Snap, 0.07 xG1–1
- P1 7:30STLJordan KyrouPPAssists: Pavel Buchnevich, Robert Thomas · Tip-in, 0.14 xG1–2
- P2 9:26STLBrandon SaadPPGWGAssists: Brayden Schenn, Torey Krug · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–3
- P3 7:01STLJordan KyrouAssists: Nick Leddy · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–4
- P3 10:58NYRVincent TrocheckPPAssists: Chris Kreider, Artemi Panarin · Snap, 0.06 xG2–4
- P3 19:42STLPavel BuchnevichENAssists: Oskar Sundqvist, Colton Parayko · Wrist, 0.59 xG2–5
Penalties (7)
- P1 6:30NYRNick Bonino: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P2 4:10NYRJonny Brodzinski: Holding2 min
- P2 6:32NYRBarclay Goodrow: Interference2 min
- P2 9:13NYRVincent Trocheck: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 12:52STLTorey Krug: Slashing2 min
- P3 3:55STLBrayden Schenn: High sticking2 min
- P3 9:40STLRobert Thomas: Slashing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Trocheck won the faceoff against Thomas
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestKreider – Brodzinski – Cuylle10:03
xG 0.66–0.08 (90%)attempts 16–4goals 0–0
- Trocheck – Panarin – Lafrenière11:37
xG 0.70–0.56 (56%)attempts 11–12goals 0–1
- Wheeler – Goodrow – Vesey10:08
xG 0.28–0.26 (52%)attempts 14–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFox – Lindgren11:15
xG 1.22–0.40 (75%)attempts 20–6goals 1–1
- Fox – Miller3:22
xG 0.45–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Gustafsson – Schneider9:13
xG 0.28–0.11 (72%)attempts 15–7goals 0–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestBuchnevich – Kyrou – Thomas11:27
xG 0.85–0.54 (61%)attempts 17–9goals 2–0
- Hayes – Kapanen – Toropchenko2:45
xG 0.13–0.12 (52%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
- Sundqvist – Walker – Blais2:09
xG 0.06–0.05 (55%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Walker – Kapanen – Toropchenko3:49
xG 0.05–0.06 (42%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKrug – Kessel13:28
xG 0.54–0.33 (62%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
- Scandella – Perunovich8:15
xG 0.14–0.17 (46%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Leddy – Parayko17:51
xG 0.24–1.35 (15%)attempts 8–29goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).