Thu, Jan 11, 2024·Mullett Arena, Tempe
Calgary Flames 6, Arizona Coyotes 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 414 | 010 | 26 | 630 |
| ARI | 112 | 113 | 09 | 234 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:20CGYMikael BacklundAssists: Blake Coleman · Snap, 0.12 xG1–0
- P1 6:37CGYYegor SharangovichSHAssists: Blake Coleman, MacKenzie Weegar · Backhand, 0.05 xG2–0
- P1 7:56CGYRasmus AnderssonGWGAssists: Nazem Kadri, MacKenzie Weegar · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–0
- P1 13:44ARILawson CrouseAssists: Nick Bjugstad, Matias Maccelli · Backhand, 0.08 xG3–1
- P1 13:58CGYBlake ColemanAssists: Chris Tanev, Noah Hanifin · Tip-in, 0.07 xG4–1
- P2 1:44ARIClayton KellerAssists: Logan Cooley, Michael Kesselring · Slap, 0.10 xG4–2
- P3 0:58CGYYegor SharangovichAssists: Jonathan Huberdeau, Elias Lindholm · Slap, 0.11 xG5–2
- P3 7:06CGYYegor SharangovichPPAssists: Elias Lindholm, Jonathan Huberdeau · Slap, 0.11 xG6–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 5:16CGYNazem Kadri: Slashing2 min
- P1 19:13ARIDylan Guenther: Hooking2 min
- P2 4:30ARISean Durzi: Tripping2 min
- P2 8:51CGYMartin Pospisil: Roughing2 min
- P2 8:51ARILawson Crouse: Roughing2 min
- P3 5:32ARIDylan Guenther: High sticking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McBain won the faceoff against Backlund
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestGreer – Dube – Ruzicka8:36
xG 0.33–0.27 (55%)attempts 5–12goals 0–0
- Kadri – Pospisil – Zary9:38
xG 0.48–0.48 (50%)attempts 8–13goals 0–2
- Huberdeau – Lindholm – Sharangovich11:06
xG 0.48–0.61 (44%)attempts 12–17goals 1–0
- Backlund – Coleman – Mangiapane11:15
xG 0.31–0.47 (40%)attempts 8–11goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestTanev – Hanifin18:32
xG 0.67–0.61 (52%)attempts 9–25goals 2–1
- Weegar – Andersson14:58
xG 0.59–0.60 (49%)attempts 18–13goals 1–1
- Oesterle – DeSimone13:30
xG 0.54–0.78 (41%)attempts 11–24goals 1–0
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestBjugstad – Crouse – Maccelli8:49
xG 0.67–0.49 (58%)attempts 15–9goals 1–0
- Bjugstad – Guenther – Cooley4:18
xG 0.14–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–0goals 0–0
- Schmaltz – Keller – McBain9:58
xG 0.57–0.63 (47%)attempts 19–10goals 0–1
- Kerfoot – Crouse – Maccelli3:48
xG 0.00–0.11 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestStecher – Kesselring13:02
xG 0.64–0.28 (69%)attempts 21–12goals 1–0
- Durzi – Moser14:33
xG 0.87–0.59 (60%)attempts 20–11goals 0–1
- Dumba – Dermott13:53
xG 0.24–0.62 (28%)attempts 12–10goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ARI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ARI is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ARI − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).