Fri, Jan 12, 2024·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Nashville Predators 6, Dallas Stars 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 88% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 06 | 215 | 417 | 638 |
| DAL | 07 | 07 | 38 | 322 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 9:22NSHJeremy LauzonUnassisted · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–0
- P2 13:51NSHTommy NovakAssists: Denis Gurianov, Roman Josi · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–0
- P3 1:09DALJani HakanpääAssists: Matt Duchene, Tyler Seguin · Snap, 0.09 xG2–1
- P3 3:41NSHRyan O'ReillyAssists: Filip Forsberg · Snap, 0.32 xG3–1
- P3 8:11DALWyatt JohnstonAssists: Nils Lundkvist, Thomas Harley · Wrist, 0.13 xG3–2
- P3 10:08NSHFilip ForsbergPPGWGAssists: Roman Josi, Ryan O'Reilly · Snap, 0.18 xG4–2
- P3 13:36DALMatt DuchenePPAssists: Jason Robertson, Joe Pavelski · Slap, 0.07 xG4–3
- P3 17:27NSHGustav NyquistENAssists: Roman Josi, Ryan O'Reilly · Wrist, 0.51 xG5–3
- P3 19:29NSHJuuso ParssinenENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.54 xG6–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 4:22DALMason Marchment: Tripping2 min
- P2 12:03NSHCole Smith: Tripping2 min
- P2 12:51DALJamie Benn: High sticking double minor4 min
- P3 4:10NSHCole Smith: Tripping2 min
- P3 9:49DALTyler Seguin: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 12:05NSHFilip Forsberg: Boarding2 min · PPG
- P3 14:43DALJoel Hanley: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Pavelski won the faceoff against Sissons
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestNyquist – O'Reilly – Forsberg10:27
xG 1.11–0.21 (84%)attempts 13–8goals 1–1
- Sissons – Gurianov – Trenin7:32
xG 0.57–0.04 (94%)attempts 14–6goals 1–0
- Novak – Smith – Evangelista6:45
xG 0.16–0.16 (50%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- McCarron – Tomasino – Parssinen5:41
xG 0.07–0.44 (14%)attempts 2–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLauzon – Carrier12:07
xG 0.72–0.22 (77%)attempts 18–7goals 1–1
- McDonagh – Schenn9:43
xG 0.80–0.33 (70%)attempts 8–10goals 1–0
- McDonagh – Josi4:46
xG 0.46–0.02 (95%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestSmith – Faksa – Steel6:21
xG 0.31–0.05 (85%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Dadonov – Hintz – Marchment2:21
xG 0.14–0.05 (75%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Duchene – Seguin – Robertson3:38
xG 0.21–0.20 (52%)attempts 4–5goals 1–0
- Pavelski – Hintz – Robertson7:57
xG 0.27–0.29 (49%)attempts 13–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHanley – Harley10:45
xG 0.61–0.44 (58%)attempts 16–13goals 0–1
- Suter – Lundkvist8:32
xG 0.11–0.06 (62%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Lundkvist – Harley4:00
xG 0.25–0.24 (51%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 88% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).