Sat, Jan 13, 2024·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
Los Angeles Kings 3, Detroit Red Wings 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 19 | 010 | 217 | 336 |
| DET | 18 | 419 | 03 | 530 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:44DETDylan LarkinAssists: David Perron · Snap, 0.04 xG0–1
- P1 6:58LAKQuinton ByfieldPPAssists: Anze Kopitar, Kevin Fiala · Slap, 0.40 xG1–1
- P2 9:17DETDylan LarkinPPAssists: Patrick Kane, Shayne Gostisbehere · Between legs, 0.16 xG1–2
- P2 16:22DETRobby FabbriAssists: Daniel Sprong, Joseph Veleno · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–3
- P2 17:26DETPatrick KaneGWGAssists: Alex DeBrincat, Jeff Petry · Wrist, 0.21 xG1–4
- P2 19:47DETAndrew CoppAssists: Christian Fischer, Jeff Petry · Tip-in, 0.13 xG1–5
- P3 3:07LAKPierre-Luc DuboisPPAssists: Alex Laferriere, Phillip Danault · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–5
- P3 5:38LAKQuinton ByfieldPPAssists: Anze Kopitar, Kevin Fiala · Wrist, 0.28 xG3–5
Penalties (6)
- P1 5:49DETJustin Holl: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 13:04LAKAlex Laferriere: Hooking2 min
- P2 7:39LAKDrew Doughty: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 9:08LAKTrevor Moore: Broken stick2 min
- P3 1:22DETAlex DeBrincat: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG
- P3 4:38DETJeff Petry: Roughing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Larkin won the faceoff against Kopitar
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestDanault – Fiala – Moore13:04
xG 0.60–0.45 (57%)attempts 22–8goals 0–0
- Kopitar – Kempe – Byfield10:58
xG 0.27–0.29 (48%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
- Lewis – Grundstrom – Lizotte6:01
xG 0.13–0.37 (26%)attempts 5–8goals 0–1
- Dubois – Anderson-Dolan – Laferriere10:19
xG 0.21–0.61 (25%)attempts 10–12goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestDoughty – Anderson16:33
xG 0.60–0.32 (65%)attempts 22–11goals 0–1
- Gavrikov – Clarke2:16
xG 0.04–0.07 (37%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Englund – Clarke6:38
xG 0.16–0.33 (33%)attempts 9–5goals 0–1
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestKane – DeBrincat – Veleno2:14
xG 0.34–0.12 (74%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Fabbri – Sprong – Veleno5:15
xG 0.35–0.15 (71%)attempts 9–6goals 1–0
- Copp – Fischer – Rasmussen7:55
xG 0.29–0.10 (74%)attempts 6–7goals 1–0
- Kane – Compher – DeBrincat11:18
xG 0.67–0.50 (57%)attempts 10–14goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestPetry – Chiarot13:59
xG 0.64–0.34 (65%)attempts 13–15goals 3–0
- Holl – Maatta12:57
xG 0.56–0.33 (63%)attempts 12–12goals 1–0
- Gostisbehere – Seider15:54
xG 0.38–0.58 (40%)attempts 11–22goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).