Sat, Jan 13, 2024·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
Colorado Avalanche 5, Toronto Maple Leafs 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 90% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 07 | 213 | 313 | 533 |
| TOR | 315 | 08 | 06 | 329 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:23TORMax DomiUnassisted · Slap, 0.02 xG0–1
- P1 10:47TORMorgan RiellyUnassisted · Backhand, 0.12 xG0–2
- P1 15:04TORTimothy LiljegrenUnassisted · Snap, 0.17 xG0–3
- P2 5:27COLJonathan DrouinPPAssists: Ross Colton, Nathan MacKinnon · Snap, 0.25 xG1–3
- P2 13:13COLMikko RantanenAssists: Samuel Girard · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–3
- P3 7:35COLAndrew CoglianoAssists: Josh Manson, Logan O'Connor · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–3
- P3 16:35COLNathan MacKinnonGWGAssists: Mikko Rantanen, Jonathan Drouin · Wrist, 0.07 xG4–3
- P3 19:53COLRoss ColtonENAssists: Ryan Johansen, Joel Kiviranta · Wrist, 0.68 xG5–3
Penalties (5)
- P2 5:17TORMark Giordano: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 5:27TORDavid Kampf: High sticking2 min
- P2 8:28COLLogan O'Connor: Tripping2 min
- P3 4:58TORJohn Tavares: Hooking2 min
- P3 9:15TORJake McCabe: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Matthews won the faceoff against MacKinnon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestMacKinnon – Drouin – Rantanen16:10
xG 1.51–0.75 (67%)attempts 31–19goals 2–0
- Colton – O'Connor – Kiviranta8:31
xG 0.43–0.20 (68%)attempts 12–7goals 0–1
- Cogliano – Johansen – Polin6:29
xG 0.08–0.10 (46%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestManson – Girard12:47
xG 0.79–0.24 (76%)attempts 16–11goals 2–1
- Johnson – Malinski6:33
xG 0.46–0.17 (73%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Toews – Makar13:35
xG 0.64–0.65 (50%)attempts 22–13goals 1–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestJarnkrok – Domi – Holmberg7:19
xG 0.72–0.04 (95%)attempts 16–4goals 2–0
- Marner – Matthews – Knies8:13
xG 0.59–0.39 (60%)attempts 8–11goals 0–1
- Nylander – Marner – Matthews5:36
xG 0.10–0.04 (68%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Gregor – Kampf – McMann7:35
xG 0.11–0.09 (54%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGiordano – Liljegren9:11
xG 0.63–0.01 (99%)attempts 13–4goals 2–0
- McCabe – Liljegren4:13
xG 0.15–0.03 (84%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Rielly – Liljegren3:20
xG 0.05–0.20 (19%)attempts 1–6goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 90% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).