Sat, Jan 13, 2024·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Arizona Coyotes 6, Minnesota Wild 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 311 | 29 | 113 | 633 |
| MIN | 08 | 016 | 014 | 038 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:07ARIAlexander KerfootPPGWGAssists: Clayton Keller, Sean Durzi · Snap, 0.13 xG1–0
- P1 11:47ARINick BjugstadAssists: Michael Kesselring · Snap, 0.17 xG2–0
- P1 17:21ARINick BjugstadPPAssists: Lawson Crouse, Jason Zucker · Tip-in, 0.16 xG3–0
- P2 1:51ARIClayton KellerAssists: Sean Durzi, Jack McBain · Wrist, 0.04 xG4–0
- P2 6:40ARINick BjugstadAssists: Jason Zucker, Troy Stecher · Wrist, 0.08 xG5–0
- P3 0:38ARIClayton KellerAssists: Jack McBain, Nick Schmaltz · Wrist, 0.12 xG6–0
Penalties (12)
- P1 2:42ARILiam O'Brien: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:42MINBrandon Duhaime: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P1 4:30MINJon Merrill: Holding2 min
- P1 15:34MINJoel Eriksson Ek: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P1 19:25ARIJack McBain: Interference2 min
- P2 1:58MINJon Merrill: Hooking2 min
- P2 4:19ARILawson Crouse: Roughing2 min
- P2 4:19MINJake Middleton: Roughing2 min
- P2 15:32ARIJoshua Brown: Roughing2 min
- P3 5:21MINMarcus Foligno: Fighting5 min
- P3 5:21ARIJoshua Brown: Fighting5 min
- P3 7:24ARITroy Stecher: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hartman won the faceoff against Bjugstad
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestBjugstad – Guenther – Cooley8:03
xG 0.57–0.16 (79%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Zucker – Bjugstad – O'Brien2:19
xG 0.28–0.21 (58%)attempts 6–2goals 1–0
- Zucker – O'Brien – Cooley2:13
xG 0.02–0.11 (13%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Schmaltz – Keller – McBain8:47
xG 0.37–0.63 (37%)attempts 7–13goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestDumba – Dermott9:39
xG 0.31–0.16 (65%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
- Stecher – Kesselring11:15
xG 0.70–0.73 (49%)attempts 10–15goals 2–0
- Dumba – Stecher2:10
xG 0.00–0.20 (0%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestMaroon – Duhaime – Dewar5:32
xG 0.56–0.05 (91%)attempts 9–2goals 0–0
- Zuccarello – Kaprizov – Rossi7:08
xG 0.38–0.07 (85%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Zuccarello – Hartman – Kaprizov4:41
xG 0.31–0.21 (60%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Foligno – Hartman – Gaudreau3:41
xG 0.26–0.18 (59%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMiddleton – Faber12:20
xG 0.73–0.20 (79%)attempts 12–5goals 0–0
- Merrill – Mermis11:20
xG 0.28–0.09 (75%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
- Bogosian – Middleton2:08
xG 0.25–0.11 (69%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it ARI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − ARI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).