Sat, Jan 13, 2024·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
New York Islanders 1, Nashville Predators 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 09 | 010 | 16 | 125 |
| NSH | 07 | 06 | 315 | 328 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P3 12:00NYIJean-Gabriel PageauAssists: Noah Dobson, Cal Clutterbuck · Tip-in, 0.09 xG1–0
- P3 15:08NSHLuke EvangelistaPPAssists: Ryan McDonagh, Philip Tomasino · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–1
- P3 19:52NSHAlexandre CarrierGWGAssists: Jeremy Lauzon, Filip Forsberg · Deflected, 0.06 xG1–2
- P3 19:59NSHJuuso ParssinenENAssists: Roman Josi · Wrist, 0.65 xG1–3
Penalties (5)
- P1 19:09NYIAnders Lee: Hooking2 min
- P2 2:37NSHJeremy Lauzon: Hooking2 min
- P2 12:14NSHJeremy Lauzon: Interference2 min
- P2 15:10NYIMatt Martin: Tripping2 min
- P3 13:13NYIKyle Palmieri: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sissons won the faceoff against Pageau
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestPalmieri – Barzal – Holmstrom5:05
xG 0.21–0.03 (89%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Nelson – Fasching – Engvall8:22
xG 0.29–0.15 (66%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Clutterbuck – Martin – Pageau6:15
xG 0.23–0.22 (52%)attempts 5–8goals 1–0
- Lee – Horvat – Wahlstrom4:59
xG 0.07–0.36 (16%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestReilly – Aho11:55
xG 0.56–0.35 (61%)attempts 13–13goals 0–0
- Dobson – Romanov18:29
xG 0.77–0.86 (47%)attempts 20–28goals 1–0
- Mayfield – Pelech14:39
xG 0.04–0.28 (12%)attempts 9–16goals 0–1
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestNyquist – O'Reilly – Forsberg12:09
xG 0.76–0.31 (71%)attempts 25–9goals 1–0
- Sissons – Gurianov – Trenin8:12
xG 0.44–0.20 (69%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
- McCarron – Tomasino – Parssinen6:05
xG 0.28–0.22 (56%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Novak – Gurianov – Evangelista2:04
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJosi – Fabbro12:39
xG 0.92–0.24 (79%)attempts 25–12goals 0–0
- McDonagh – Schenn12:25
xG 0.46–0.29 (62%)attempts 15–10goals 0–0
- McDonagh – Josi5:47
xG 0.12–0.12 (48%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).