Mon, Jan 15, 2024·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
San Jose Sharks 0, Buffalo Sabres 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 08 | 012 | 08 | 028 |
| BUF | 07 | 212 | 116 | 335 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 11:34BUFCasey MittelstadtGWGAssists: Kyle Okposo, Ryan Johnson · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–1
- P2 14:37BUFAlex TuchPPAssists: Jack Quinn, Casey Mittelstadt · Snap, 0.14 xG0–2
- P3 16:34BUFJordan GreenwayENAssists: Casey Mittelstadt, Rasmus Dahlin · Wrist, 0.66 xG0–3
Penalties (6)
- P2 13:36SJSFabian Zetterlund: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 15:34BUFRyan Johnson: Holding2 min
- P3 5:40SJSKyle Burroughs: Interference2 min
- P3 5:40BUFZemgus Girgensons: Interference2 min
- P3 7:53BUFOwen Power: Hooking2 min
- P3 11:08SJSNikita Okhotiuk: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hertl won the faceoff against Cozens
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestGranlund – Duclair – Zetterlund11:34
xG 0.57–0.05 (92%)attempts 16–4goals 0–0
- Hertl – Barabanov – Eklund2:53
xG 0.52–0.06 (89%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Bailey – Kunin – Barabanov7:22
xG 0.11–0.12 (48%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Hertl – Zadina – Eklund8:02
xG 0.24–0.39 (38%)attempts 8–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFerraro – Thrun2:54
xG 0.40–0.26 (61%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Vlasic – Ferraro14:20
xG 0.68–0.59 (53%)attempts 21–11goals 0–1
- Burroughs – Okhotiuk12:04
xG 0.20–0.26 (44%)attempts 12–11goals 0–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestGreenway – Mittelstadt – Robinson3:50
xG 0.18–0.12 (60%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Girgensons – Cozens – Quinn2:05
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Okposo – Greenway – Mittelstadt4:37
xG 0.17–0.23 (43%)attempts 3–6goals 1–0
- Okposo – Girgensons – Krebs6:12
xG 0.09–0.17 (34%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestClifton – Johnson13:10
xG 1.18–0.48 (71%)attempts 17–14goals 0–0
- Jokiharju – Dahlin14:41
xG 0.86–0.19 (82%)attempts 19–11goals 0–0
- Johnson – Power13:08
xG 0.20–1.28 (13%)attempts 10–19goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).