Mon, Jan 15, 2024·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
New York Islanders 0, Minnesota Wild 5
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 78% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 010 | 03 | 08 | 021 |
| MIN | 112 | 220 | 28 | 540 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:11MINMats ZuccarelloPPGWGAssists: Brock Faber, Matt Boldy · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–1
- P2 2:18MINConnor DewarUnassisted · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–2
- P2 13:36MINJoel Eriksson EkPPAssists: Kirill Kaprizov, Mats Zuccarello · Tip-in, 0.16 xG0–3
- P3 16:09MINJoel Eriksson EkSHAssists: Marcus Foligno, Zach Bogosian · Snap, 0.14 xG0–4
- P3 19:03MINMarcus FolignoAssists: Frederick Gaudreau, Jonas Brodin · Tip-in, 0.11 xG0–5
Penalties (10)
- P1 1:05NYIAnders Lee: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 6:04MINMarcus Foligno: Roughing2 min
- P1 9:57NYINoah Dobson: Tripping2 min
- P1 18:41NYIKyle Palmieri: High sticking2 min
- P2 2:35MINJoel Eriksson Ek: Holding2 min
- P2 12:35NYIBo Horvat: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P2 14:57MINRyan Hartman: Tripping2 min
- P2 19:37NYIKyle Palmieri: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 13:01MINKirill Kaprizov: High sticking double minor4 min
- P3 13:09NYIAnders Lee: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Rossi won the faceoff against Nelson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- Clutterbuck – Martin – Pageau2:09
xG 0.01–0.03 (19%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Pageau – Gauthier – Holmstrom4:38
xG 0.22–0.25 (46%)attempts 2–7goals 0–1
- Palmieri – Nelson – Engvall7:15
xG 0.29–0.37 (43%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
- Martin – Nelson – Fasching2:00
xG 0.00–0.09 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestReilly – Aho9:13
xG 0.48–0.43 (53%)attempts 7–11goals 0–2
- Mayfield – Pelech10:56
xG 0.13–0.17 (43%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Dobson – Romanov11:05
xG 0.27–0.68 (28%)attempts 11–12goals 0–0
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestMaroon – Duhaime – Dewar8:30
xG 0.53–0.11 (83%)attempts 12–4goals 1–0
- Johansson – Eriksson Ek – Boldy6:44
xG 0.35–0.14 (72%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Foligno – Hartman – Gaudreau8:35
xG 0.63–0.46 (58%)attempts 13–6goals 1–0
- Maroon – Foligno – Hartman2:01
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMiddleton – Faber13:07
xG 0.82–0.19 (81%)attempts 14–9goals 0–0
- Mermis – Hunt10:07
xG 0.42–0.26 (62%)attempts 14–5goals 1–0
- Bogosian – Brodin12:56
xG 0.33–0.48 (40%)attempts 12–11goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 78% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).