Tue, Jan 16, 2024·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Arizona Coyotes 2, Calgary Flames 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 03 | 111 | 110 | 01 | 225 |
| CGY | 06 | 08 | 29 | 17 | 330 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 8:22ARISean DurziAssists: Nick Schmaltz, J.J. Moser · Slap, 0.04 xG1–0
- P3 6:37ARILogan CooleyAssists: Sean Durzi, Clayton Keller · Deflected, 0.15 xG2–0
- P3 8:54CGYBlake ColemanAssists: Rasmus Andersson · Deflected, 0.11 xG2–1
- P3 9:57CGYNazem KadriAssists: Martin Pospisil · Snap, 0.28 xG2–2
- OT 4:43CGYYegor SharangovichPPGWGAssists: Nazem Kadri, Elias Lindholm · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–3
Penalties (10)
- P1 3:51CGYElias Lindholm: Tripping2 min
- P1 11:45ARIAlexander Kerfoot: Delaying game face off violation2 min
- P1 16:28ARIMichael Kesselring: Cross checking2 min
- P1 16:28ARIMichael Kesselring: Roughing2 min
- P1 16:28CGYJordan Oesterle: Roughing2 min
- P2 1:03CGYRasmus Andersson: Hooking2 min
- P2 5:18ARITroy Stecher: Interference2 min
- P2 11:53ARILiam O'Brien: Tripping2 min
- P3 4:23CGYNoah Hanifin: Tripping2 min
- OT 3:03ARIDylan Guenther: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backlund won the faceoff against McBain
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestZucker – Kerfoot – Crouse5:00
xG 0.52–0.04 (93%)attempts 9–1goals 0–0
- Schmaltz – Keller – McBain6:00
xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 1–0
- Kerfoot – Crouse – Maccelli4:28
xG 0.06–0.01 (83%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Zucker – Bjugstad – O'Brien2:31
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStecher – Kesselring10:09
xG 0.59–0.52 (53%)attempts 16–6goals 0–1
- Durzi – Moser14:36
xG 0.35–0.28 (56%)attempts 15–10goals 1–0
- Dumba – Dermott13:42
xG 0.14–0.48 (22%)attempts 8–9goals 0–1
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestKadri – Pospisil – Zary10:33
xG 0.57–0.20 (74%)attempts 9–14goals 1–0
- Greer – Ruzicka – Duehr3:40
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Backlund – Coleman – Mangiapane11:38
xG 0.53–0.50 (51%)attempts 8–12goals 1–0
- Lindholm – Dube – Sharangovich6:53
xG 0.01–0.32 (3%)attempts 5–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestTanev – Hanifin16:14
xG 0.40–0.29 (58%)attempts 10–11goals 0–1
- Weegar – Andersson14:12
xG 0.41–0.50 (45%)attempts 10–17goals 1–0
- Oesterle – DeSimone9:47
xG 0.24–0.71 (25%)attempts 4–15goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it ARI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − ARI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).