Wed, Jan 17, 2024·Amerant Bank Arena, Sunrise
Detroit Red Wings 3, Florida Panthers 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 87% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 09 | 110 | 19 | 11 | 329 |
| FLA | 010 | 213 | 011 | 00 | 234 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 5:38FLASam ReinhartSHAssists: Anton Lundell, Dmitry Kulikov · Snap, 0.25 xG0–1
- P2 11:40DETMichael RasmussenAssists: Olli Maatta, Andrew Copp · Tip-in, 0.06 xG1–1
- P2 11:56FLAGustav ForslingAssists: Sam Bennett · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–2
- P3 6:15DETRobby FabbriAssists: Michael Rasmussen, Olli Maatta · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–2
- OT 1:09DETDylan LarkinPPGWGAssists: Shayne Gostisbehere, David Perron · Snap, 0.21 xG3–2
Penalties (11)
- P1 10:54FLARyan Lomberg: Roughing2 min
- P1 10:54DETJ.T. Compher: Roughing2 min
- P1 11:55DETBen Chiarot: Roughing removing opponents helmet2 min
- P1 11:55FLAMatthew Tkachuk: Roughing2 min
- P1 12:36FLABrandon Montour: Slashing2 min
- P1 16:45DETShayne Gostisbehere: Roughing2 min
- P2 4:00FLABrandon Montour: Interference2 min
- P2 19:05DETDaniel Sprong: Holding2 min
- P3 14:23FLAEvan Rodrigues: Embellishment2 min
- P3 14:23DETRobby Fabbri: Hooking2 min
- P3 19:21FLAAaron Ekblad: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Larkin won the faceoff against Bennett
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- Copp – Fischer – Rasmussen8:55
xG 0.21–0.26 (45%)attempts 14–8goals 1–0
- Compher – Fabbri – DeBrincat8:45
xG 0.05–0.29 (15%)attempts 3–14goals 0–0
- Fabbri – Kostin – Veleno3:27
xG 0.02–0.32 (5%)attempts 1–7goals 0–0
- Sprong – Kostin – Veleno4:21
xG 0.12–0.50 (19%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Holl – Maatta12:36
xG 0.50–0.60 (45%)attempts 16–10goals 2–0
- Gostisbehere – Seider13:59
xG 0.21–0.66 (24%)attempts 12–14goals 0–0
- Petry – Chiarot13:51
xG 0.14–1.53 (9%)attempts 6–29goals 0–1
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestReinhart – Luostarinen – Lundell10:53
xG 1.10–0.03 (97%)attempts 18–6goals 0–0
- Verhaeghe – Bennett – Tkachuk11:36
xG 0.99–0.08 (93%)attempts 16–6goals 1–0
- Lorentz – Lockwood – Gadjovich4:40
xG 0.24–0.12 (67%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Rodrigues – Stenlund – Lomberg8:12
xG 0.36–0.42 (46%)attempts 6–12goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestEkman-Larsson – Kulikov12:04
xG 1.00–0.21 (82%)attempts 12–8goals 0–1
- Ekblad – Forsling15:18
xG 1.18–0.55 (68%)attempts 26–10goals 1–0
- Montour – Mikkola15:11
xG 0.60–0.40 (60%)attempts 18–18goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 87% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).