Thu, Jan 18, 2024·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Montréal Canadiens 2, Ottawa Senators 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 16 | 011 | 16 | 223 |
| OTT | 217 | 213 | 27 | 637 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:40OTTBrady TkachukAssists: Ridly Greig, Artem Zub · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–1
- P1 11:07OTTTim StützleAssists: Artem Zub, Drake Batherson · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–2
- P1 13:25MTLCole CaufieldAssists: Sean Monahan · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–2
- P2 9:51OTTRourke ChartierGWGAssists: Parker Kelly, Jacob Bernard-Docker · Wrist, 0.23 xG1–3
- P2 18:54OTTVladimir TarasenkoAssists: Brady Tkachuk, Tim Stützle · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–4
- P3 1:41OTTMathieu JosephAssists: Tim Stützle · Snap, 0.11 xG1–5
- P3 12:26OTTParker KellyENAssists: Jake Sanderson · Wrist, 0.65 xG1–6
- P3 15:16MTLMichael PezzettaUnassisted · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–6
Penalties (10)
- P1 18:58MTLMichael Pezzetta: Fighting5 min
- P1 18:58OTTZack MacEwen: Fighting5 min
- P2 15:46OTTErik Brannstrom: Tripping2 min
- P2 19:07OTTRidly Greig: Slashing2 min
- P3 2:20MTLJoel Armia: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 11:29MTLBrendan Gallagher: Roughing2 min
- P3 11:29OTTTim Stützle: Roughing2 min
- P3 12:44OTTJakob Chychrun: Holding2 min
- P3 16:15MTLJayden Struble: Holding2 min
- P3 19:49OTTJacob Bernard-Docker: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Suzuki won the faceoff against Greig
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestArmia – Monahan – Roy9:10
xG 0.55–0.37 (59%)attempts 11–11goals 0–1
- Gallagher – Evans – Harvey-Pinard10:57
xG 0.36–0.73 (33%)attempts 11–18goals 0–1
- Suzuki – Caufield – Slafkovský12:05
xG 0.37–0.80 (32%)attempts 12–19goals 0–1
- Stephens – Pezzetta – Ylonen6:27
xG 0.05–0.51 (9%)attempts 2–7goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Harris – Barron9:49
xG 0.25–0.25 (50%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Savard – Struble12:58
xG 0.55–0.96 (37%)attempts 12–20goals 1–2
- Matheson – Guhle16:47
xG 0.48–1.25 (28%)attempts 16–31goals 0–1
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestGiroux – Tkachuk – Greig11:39
xG 0.94–0.53 (64%)attempts 22–14goals 0–1
- Tarasenko – Chartier – Kelly7:39
xG 0.75–0.45 (62%)attempts 15–8goals 1–0
- Kubalik – MacEwen – Kastelic5:41
xG 0.39–0.10 (79%)attempts 6–5goals 0–1
- Joseph – Batherson – Stützle11:26
xG 0.75–0.51 (59%)attempts 16–8goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestSanderson – Zub14:50
xG 1.34–0.47 (74%)attempts 29–13goals 1–0
- Chabot – Chychrun17:04
xG 0.79–0.71 (53%)attempts 18–16goals 1–1
- Brannstrom – Bernard-Docker12:01
xG 0.69–0.66 (51%)attempts 17–13goals 2–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).