Thu, Jan 18, 2024·Rogers Place, Edmonton
Seattle Kraken 2, Edmonton Oilers 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | 210 | 010 | 07 | 227 |
| EDM | 012 | 313 | 111 | 436 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:49SEAEeli TolvanenAssists: Oliver Bjorkstrand · Snap, 0.13 xG1–0
- P1 13:32SEAJared McCannAssists: Jordan Eberle, Yanni Gourde · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–0
- P2 0:37EDMWarren FoegeleAssists: Leon Draisaitl, Evander Kane · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–1
- P2 4:38EDMLeon DraisaitlPPAssists: Zach Hyman, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins · Wrist, 0.26 xG2–2
- P2 7:38EDMWarren FoegeleGWGAssists: Leon Draisaitl, Evander Kane · Snap, 0.20 xG2–3
- P3 17:22EDMZach HymanPPAssists: Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl · Snap, 0.33 xG2–4
Penalties (14)
- P1 1:27EDMZach Hyman: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 6:54SEAWill Borgen: Holding2 min
- P1 7:13EDMConnor McDavid: Slashing2 min
- P1 11:15SEAAdam Larsson: Boarding2 min
- P2 1:20EDMConnor McDavid: Roughing2 min
- P2 4:25SEATomas Tatar: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 10:13EDMMattias Ekholm: Tripping2 min
- P3 8:36EDMDarnell Nurse: Holding2 min
- P3 16:26EDMMattias Ekholm: Roughing2 min
- P3 16:26SEAYanni Gourde: Charging5 min · PPG
- P3 19:27SEAWill Borgen: Slashing2 min
- P3 19:27EDMWarren Foegele: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 19:27EDMWarren Foegele: Misconduct10 min
- P3 19:27SEAWill Borgen: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Draisaitl won the faceoff against Wennberg
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Seattle Kraken
Forward lines
- bestGourde – Bjorkstrand – Tolvanen9:37
xG 0.41–0.25 (62%)attempts 9–7goals 0–1
- Tanev – Yamamoto – Kartye4:52
xG 0.37–0.31 (55%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
- Eberle – Tatar – McCann4:11
xG 0.01–0.28 (3%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Schwartz – Burakovsky – Wennberg8:37
xG 0.06–0.45 (12%)attempts 4–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Larsson – Evans14:24
xG 0.62–0.60 (51%)attempts 17–15goals 0–0
- Dumoulin – Larsson3:21
xG 0.10–0.08 (54%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Schultz – Dumoulin8:38
xG 0.15–0.16 (48%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestKane – Draisaitl – Foegele9:48
xG 0.59–0.06 (90%)attempts 8–3goals 2–0
- Hyman – Nugent-Hopkins – McDavid12:13
xG 0.66–0.47 (58%)attempts 12–11goals 0–0
- Janmark – Ryan – McLeod6:19
xG 0.18–0.21 (46%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Gagner – Brown – Hamblin4:43
xG 0.08–0.32 (21%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCeci – Nurse12:32
xG 0.47–0.13 (78%)attempts 13–6goals 1–0
- Ekholm – Bouchard17:29
xG 0.68–0.75 (48%)attempts 10–20goals 1–1
- Kulak – Desharnais8:55
xG 0.14–0.43 (25%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it SEA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − SEA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).