Fri, Jan 19, 2024·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Detroit Red Wings 2, Carolina Hurricanes 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 93% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 13 | 15 | 04 | 212 |
| CAR | 18 | 18 | 214 | 430 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:27DETKlim KostinAssists: Joseph Veleno, Daniel Sprong · Snap, 0.10 xG1–0
- P1 3:14CARJordan MartinookAssists: Brent Burns, Jordan Staal · Tip-in, 0.14 xG1–1
- P2 16:25CARMartin NecasAssists: Michael Bunting, Dmitry Orlov · Snap, 0.08 xG1–2
- P2 19:17DETJ.T. CompherPPAssists: Dylan Larkin, Shayne Gostisbehere · Snap, 0.16 xG2–2
- P3 10:46CARAndrei SvechnikovPPGWGAssists: Michael Bunting, Sebastian Aho · Wrist, 0.25 xG2–3
- P3 18:44CARSebastian AhoENAssists: Martin Necas, Andrei Svechnikov · Wrist, 0.68 xG2–4
Penalties (2)
- P2 18:57CARJaccob Slavin: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 10:15DETJeff Petry: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Larkin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestCompher – Sprong – DeBrincat4:51
xG 0.07–0.01 (84%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Fabbri – Kostin – Veleno3:02
xG 0.15–0.19 (45%)attempts 1–4goals 0–1
- Sprong – Kostin – Veleno7:52
xG 0.13–0.32 (29%)attempts 6–9goals 1–0
- Perron – Larkin – Raymond14:08
xG 0.03–0.27 (11%)attempts 6–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestPetry – Chiarot13:32
xG 0.38–0.22 (63%)attempts 10–13goals 1–0
- Maatta – Gostisbehere19:36
xG 0.18–0.74 (20%)attempts 8–17goals 0–1
- Walman – Seider19:11
xG 0.10–0.68 (13%)attempts 11–19goals 0–1
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestNoesen – Necas – Drury14:07
xG 0.71–0.10 (88%)attempts 13–4goals 0–0
- Teravainen – Aho – Svechnikov13:31
xG 0.36–0.09 (80%)attempts 20–4goals 0–0
- Staal – Martinook – Jarvis13:05
xG 0.27–0.10 (74%)attempts 7–10goals 1–0
- Fast – Bunting – Kotkaniemi9:39
xG 0.22–0.39 (36%)attempts 10–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBurns – Slavin17:57
xG 0.81–0.06 (93%)attempts 23–9goals 2–0
- Orlov – Chatfield17:02
xG 0.72–0.11 (87%)attempts 14–7goals 0–0
- Skjei – Pesce21:11
xG 0.38–0.54 (41%)attempts 21–13goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 93% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).