Sat, Jan 20, 2024·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Colorado Avalanche 7, Philadelphia Flyers 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 25 | 310 | 210 | 725 |
| PHI | 012 | 211 | 217 | 440 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:58COLLogan O'ConnorAssists: Ross Colton, Sam Malinski · Deflected, 0.10 xG1–0
- P1 18:36COLMikko RantanenAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Ross Colton · Snap, 0.09 xG2–0
- P2 0:43COLNathan MacKinnonAssists: Miles Wood, Josh Manson · Wrist, 0.13 xG3–0
- P2 1:49PHIJoel FarabeeAssists: Morgan Frost, Cam Atkinson · Wrist, 0.14 xG3–1
- P2 8:14COLLogan O'ConnorAssists: Miles Wood, Ross Colton · Tip-in, 0.09 xG4–1
- P2 12:23PHITravis KonecnyAssists: Owen Tippett, Ryan Poehling · Wrist, 0.03 xG4–2
- P2 17:05COLNathan MacKinnonGWGAssists: Josh Manson, Joel Kiviranta · Wrist, 0.04 xG5–2
- P3 5:26PHITyson FoersterAssists: Morgan Frost, Cam Atkinson · Wrist, 0.03 xG5–3
- P3 8:11PHICam AtkinsonAssists: Rasmus Ristolainen, Noah Cates · Tip-in, 0.13 xG5–4
- P3 12:23COLMikko RantanenPPAssists: Cale Makar, Jonathan Drouin · Wrist, 0.33 xG6–4
- P3 19:39COLLogan O'ConnorENAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Devon Toews · Wrist, 0.73 xG7–4
Penalties (5)
- P1 4:42COLJonathan Drouin: Slashing2 min
- P1 12:28COLJosh Manson: High sticking2 min
- P1 16:30PHITravis Sanheim: High sticking2 min
- P2 8:57COLJason Polin: Tripping2 min
- P3 11:34PHIScott Laughton: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Laughton won the faceoff against Colton
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestWood – Colton – O'Connor10:51
xG 0.60–0.09 (87%)attempts 14–9goals 2–0
- Cogliano – Johansen – Kiviranta3:59
xG 0.01–0.19 (7%)attempts 2–6goals 0–2
- Cogliano – Olofsson – Kiviranta3:00
xG 0.00–0.18 (1%)attempts 4–6goals 0–1
- MacDermid – Olofsson – Polin3:39
xG 0.00–0.25 (2%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestManson – Girard14:42
xG 0.26–0.20 (57%)attempts 5–11goals 2–1
- Johnson – Malinski8:45
xG 0.25–0.36 (41%)attempts 8–12goals 2–1
- Toews – Makar15:41
xG 0.44–0.64 (41%)attempts 16–25goals 0–1
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestCouturier – Konecny – Tippett8:19
xG 0.43–0.07 (85%)attempts 13–4goals 1–1
- Atkinson – Frost – Foerster2:02
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 1–0
- Atkinson – Frost – Farabee6:11
xG 0.25–0.24 (52%)attempts 5–4goals 1–1
- Couturier – Konecny – Farabee3:16
xG 0.04–0.08 (37%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSeeler – Ristolainen9:11
xG 0.50–0.07 (88%)attempts 15–5goals 2–0
- Ristolainen – Zamula3:42
xG 0.33–0.10 (76%)attempts 6–4goals 2–1
- York – Drysdale4:34
xG 0.18–0.00 (99%)attempts 11–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).