Sat, Jan 20, 2024·Mullett Arena, Tempe
Nashville Predators 2, Arizona Coyotes 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 012 | 113 | 17 | 232 |
| ARI | 16 | 211 | 07 | 324 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:52ARIClayton KellerAssists: Dylan Guenther, Sean Durzi · Wrist, 0.17 xG0–1
- P2 1:20ARIClayton KellerAssists: Matias Maccelli · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–2
- P2 3:42NSHRoman JosiPPAssists: Gustav Nyquist, Colton Sissons · Slap, 0.03 xG1–2
- P2 9:50ARIMichael CarconeGWGAssists: Jack McBain, Sean Durzi · Wrist, 0.31 xG1–3
- P3 18:44NSHTommy NovakAssists: Filip Forsberg, Roman Josi · Slap, 0.18 xG2–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 1:06ARITravis Dermott: Hooking2 min
- P1 9:52NSHCole Smith: High sticking2 min
- P1 12:01ARIMatias Maccelli: Tripping2 min
- P2 3:19ARITravis Dermott: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 14:34ARILawson Crouse: Hooking2 min
- P2 18:51ARIMichael Carcone: Tripping2 min
- P3 3:07NSHTyson Barrie: Tripping2 min
- P3 8:37ARIClayton Keller: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00O'Reilly won the faceoff against Kerfoot
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- Sissons – Trenin – Smith2:18
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
- Sissons – Trenin – Sherwood4:29
xG 0.25–0.29 (47%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Nyquist – O'Reilly – Forsberg8:35
xG 0.30–0.53 (36%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
- Gurianov – Glass – Parssinen4:05
xG 0.02–0.29 (7%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLauzon – Carrier8:20
xG 0.39–0.18 (68%)attempts 8–4goals 0–1
- Barrie – Lauzon2:26
xG 0.05–0.01 (81%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- McDonagh – Schenn2:19
xG 0.04–0.04 (46%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestBjugstad – Keller – Maccelli7:08
xG 0.61–0.02 (97%)attempts 8–3goals 1–0
- O'Brien – Carcone – McBain6:48
xG 0.78–0.28 (74%)attempts 14–8goals 1–0
- Keller – Guenther – Cooley7:07
xG 0.52–0.13 (79%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Zucker – Kerfoot – Crouse8:45
xG 0.10–0.35 (23%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDurzi – Moser11:33
xG 1.42–0.22 (87%)attempts 13–12goals 2–0
- Stecher – Kesselring8:30
xG 0.55–0.28 (66%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
- Dumba – Dermott11:12
xG 0.24–0.28 (46%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ARI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ARI is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ARI − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).