Mon, Jan 22, 2024·Mullett Arena, Tempe
Pittsburgh Penguins 2, Arizona Coyotes 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 09 | 29 | 09 | 227 |
| ARI | 110 | 28 | 29 | 527 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:23ARIJason ZuckerAssists: Logan Cooley, Joshua Brown · Slap, 0.34 xG0–1
- P2 4:50PITLars EllerAssists: Pierre-Olivier Joseph · Wrist, 0.39 xG1–1
- P2 11:04ARIJuuso VälimäkiAssists: Clayton Keller, Matias Maccelli · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–2
- P2 16:30PITSidney CrosbyAssists: Erik Karlsson, Evgeni Malkin · Tip-in, 0.03 xG2–2
- P2 18:01ARIAlexander KerfootGWGAssists: Jason Zucker · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–3
- P3 4:10ARILawson CrouseENUnassisted · Other, 0.76 xG2–4
- P3 7:04ARINick BjugstadAssists: Liam O'Brien, Jack McBain · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–5
Penalties (6)
- P1 15:59ARILogan Cooley: High sticking2 min
- P2 5:42PITPierre-Olivier Joseph: Slashing2 min
- P2 13:34PITMarcus Pettersson: Tripping2 min
- P2 14:29ARIAlexander Kerfoot: Slashing2 min
- P3 2:58PITJansen Harkins: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 4:10ARIJason Zucker: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Bjugstad
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestEller – White – Puustinen3:57
xG 0.45–0.04 (92%)attempts 4–5goals 1–0
- Crosby – Rust – Guentzel7:41
xG 0.78–0.53 (60%)attempts 10–10goals 0–1
- Malkin – Rust – O'Connor5:46
xG 0.14–0.20 (41%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Malkin – White – O'Connor3:56
xG 0.00–0.07 (0%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLetang – Pettersson18:28
xG 1.19–0.75 (61%)attempts 16–19goals 0–1
- Ruhwedel – Joseph12:37
xG 0.69–0.31 (69%)attempts 10–8goals 1–0
- Karlsson – Graves14:21
xG 0.30–1.01 (23%)attempts 17–16goals 0–3
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestKeller – Guenther – Cooley7:31
xG 0.38–0.27 (58%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Zucker – Kerfoot – Crouse10:03
xG 0.62–0.53 (54%)attempts 13–9goals 1–1
- O'Brien – Carcone – McBain11:01
xG 0.15–0.13 (53%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Bjugstad – Keller – Maccelli9:07
xG 0.43–0.92 (32%)attempts 11–17goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestBrown – Dermott5:18
xG 0.33–0.03 (93%)attempts 6–3goals 1–0
- Välimäki – Durzi3:18
xG 0.21–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–1goals 1–0
- Dumba – Dermott4:50
xG 0.10–0.05 (66%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ARI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ARI is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ARI − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).