Tue, Jan 23, 2024·Rogers Place, Edmonton
Columbus Blue Jackets 1, Edmonton Oilers 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 113 | 09 | 05 | 127 |
| EDM | 18 | 05 | 311 | 424 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:30EDMWarren FoegelePPAssists: Evander Kane, Darnell Nurse · Deflected, 0.14 xG0–1
- P1 15:25CBJDmitri VoronkovAssists: Kent Johnson · Snap, 0.17 xG1–1
- P3 4:53EDMEvander KaneGWGAssists: Warren Foegele, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins · Wrist, 0.25 xG1–2
- P3 5:48EDMConnor McDavidAssists: Leon Draisaitl, Cody Ceci · Snap, 0.25 xG1–3
- P3 15:36EDMDylan HollowayAssists: Connor Brown, Brett Kulak · Wrist, 0.21 xG1–4
Penalties (8)
- P1 6:10CBJAndrew Peeke: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 10:37EDMWarren Foegele: Tripping2 min
- P2 7:00EDMMattias Ekholm: Roughing2 min
- P2 7:00CBJSean Kuraly: Slashing2 min
- P2 7:33CBJBoone Jenner: Tripping2 min
- P2 9:41EDMDarnell Nurse: Tripping2 min
- P3 6:45EDMDerek Ryan: High sticking2 min
- P3 18:38EDMSam Gagner: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McDavid won the faceoff against Sillinger
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestMarchenko – Voronkov – Johnson8:23
xG 0.96–0.32 (75%)attempts 15–9goals 1–0
- Gaudreau – Chinakhov – Sillinger11:12
xG 0.21–0.15 (58%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
- Kuraly – Danforth – Texier9:15
xG 0.34–0.50 (40%)attempts 7–6goals 0–1
- Jenner – Roslovic – Fantilli11:26
xG 0.40–1.27 (24%)attempts 7–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGudbranson – Bean13:08
xG 0.94–0.75 (56%)attempts 14–13goals 1–1
- Severson – Boqvist17:39
xG 0.73–0.97 (43%)attempts 11–18goals 0–1
- Provorov – Peeke10:34
xG 0.47–1.05 (31%)attempts 12–8goals 0–1
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestKane – Nugent-Hopkins – Foegele3:34
xG 0.73–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 1–0
- Brown – McLeod – Holloway3:47
xG 0.66–0.16 (80%)attempts 10–3goals 1–0
- Hyman – Nugent-Hopkins – McDavid8:12
xG 0.57–0.18 (76%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Hyman – Draisaitl – McDavid6:26
xG 0.64–0.27 (70%)attempts 8–2goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestKulak – Desharnais11:04
xG 0.92–0.55 (63%)attempts 11–7goals 1–1
- Ekholm – Bouchard17:54
xG 0.88–0.57 (61%)attempts 15–12goals 0–0
- Ceci – Nurse14:55
xG 0.79–1.22 (39%)attempts 11–21goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).