Wed, Jan 24, 2024·TD Garden, Boston
Carolina Hurricanes 3, Boston Bruins 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 110 | 113 | 110 | 333 |
| BOS | 08 | 07 | 213 | 228 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:04CARMartin NecasPPAssists: Brady Skjei, Jack Drury · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–0
- P2 11:50CARTeuvo TeravainenPPAssists: Seth Jarvis, Sebastian Aho · Wrist, 0.23 xG2–0
- P3 1:30BOSBrad MarchandAssists: Trent Frederic, Hampus Lindholm · Wrist, 0.20 xG2–1
- P3 7:20BOSBrad MarchandAssists: Charlie Coyle, Trent Frederic · Wrist, 0.24 xG2–2
- P3 17:33CARJordan MartinookGWGAssists: Teuvo Teravainen, Sebastian Aho · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–2
Penalties (7)
- P1 3:01CARJalen Chatfield: Tripping2 min
- P1 16:32BOSBrandon Carlo: Holding the stick2 min · PPG
- P1 19:33BOSBrad Marchand: Hooking2 min
- P2 0:47CARStefan Noesen: Tripping2 min
- P2 10:11BOSMorgan Geekie: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 14:51CARBrendan Lemieux: Tripping2 min
- P3 13:29CARDmitry Orlov: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Frederic won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestNoesen – Necas – Drury10:47
xG 1.14–0.47 (71%)attempts 18–8goals 0–0
- Fast – Lemieux – Kotkaniemi6:44
xG 0.41–0.12 (78%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
- Staal – Martinook – Jarvis4:22
xG 0.25–0.18 (58%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Teravainen – Martinook – Aho4:39
xG 0.30–0.36 (46%)attempts 4–4goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestBurns – Slavin14:19
xG 1.44–0.74 (66%)attempts 20–11goals 1–1
- Orlov – Chatfield13:18
xG 0.41–0.32 (56%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
- Skjei – Pesce13:53
xG 0.57–0.65 (47%)attempts 15–12goals 0–1
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestMarchand – Coyle – Frederic3:36
xG 0.65–0.19 (77%)attempts 6–4goals 2–0
- Marchand – Coyle – Pastrnak3:49
xG 0.52–0.11 (83%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Heinen – Steen – Geekie2:05
xG 0.06–0.01 (82%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Pastrnak – Zacha – DeBrusk3:13
xG 0.12–0.12 (50%)attempts 3–2goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestLindholm – McAvoy4:38
xG 0.40–0.02 (96%)attempts 6–1goals 1–0
- Grzelcyk – McAvoy11:04
xG 0.84–0.54 (61%)attempts 10–14goals 0–0
- Forbort – Carlo3:14
xG 0.32–0.04 (90%)attempts 2–2goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).