Thu, Jan 25, 2024·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Arizona Coyotes 3, Tampa Bay Lightning 6
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 17 | 19 | 14 | 320 |
| TBL | 213 | 314 | 110 | 637 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:24TBLDarren RaddyshAssists: Brandon Hagel, Anthony Cirelli · Wrist, 0.00 xG0–1
- P1 8:40ARIClayton KellerAssists: Nick Schmaltz, Joshua Brown · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–1
- P1 19:26TBLBrayden PointAssists: Nikita Kucherov · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–2
- P2 7:36TBLNikita KucherovAssists: Steven Stamkos, Victor Hedman · Slap, 0.05 xG1–3
- P2 12:02TBLSteven StamkosPPGWGAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Brayden Point · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–4
- P2 15:18TBLMitchell ChaffeeAssists: Max Crozier, Emil Lilleberg · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–5
- P2 16:59ARISean DurziAssists: Jack McBain, Clayton Keller · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–5
- P3 7:32TBLLuke GlendeningAssists: Mitchell Chaffee · Snap, 0.18 xG2–6
- P3 11:48ARILawson CrouseAssists: Logan Cooley · Wrist, 0.17 xG3–6
Penalties (9)
- P1 19:08ARIJ.J. Moser: Fighting5 min
- P1 19:08TBLMichael Eyssimont: Fighting5 min
- P2 10:56ARIAlexander Kerfoot: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 19:16TBLCalvin de Haan: Tripping2 min
- P3 11:48ARIMichael Kesselring: Cross checking2 min
- P3 11:48ARIMichael Kesselring: Cross checking2 min
- P3 11:48TBLMax Crozier: Fighting5 min
- P3 11:48ARILawson Crouse: Fighting5 min
- P3 11:48ARIMichael Kesselring: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McBain won the faceoff against Cirelli
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestSchmaltz – Keller – McBain11:56
xG 0.87–0.44 (67%)attempts 12–7goals 2–1
- Maccelli – Guenther – Cooley7:44
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Zucker – Kerfoot – Crouse12:27
xG 0.37–0.42 (47%)attempts 17–14goals 0–1
- Carcone – Maccelli – Cooley2:19
xG 0.02–0.10 (16%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKesselring – Moser2:30
xG 0.38–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Brown – Välimäki12:14
xG 0.55–0.29 (65%)attempts 7–12goals 1–0
- Välimäki – Kesselring3:18
xG 0.14–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestGlendening – Chaffee – Merela6:15
xG 0.33–0.17 (66%)attempts 6–3goals 2–0
- Stamkos – Kucherov – Point13:56
xG 0.36–0.27 (58%)attempts 12–8goals 2–1
- Motte – Sheary – Eyssimont6:58
xG 0.25–0.16 (60%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Paul – Cirelli – Hagel10:37
xG 0.13–0.85 (14%)attempts 5–13goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestRaddysh – Lilleberg2:26
xG 0.20–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Hedman – Raddysh15:48
xG 0.39–0.22 (63%)attempts 12–10goals 2–0
- Crozier – Lilleberg14:22
xG 0.73–0.59 (55%)attempts 12–16goals 2–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it ARI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − ARI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).