Thu, Jan 25, 2024·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Columbus Blue Jackets 5, Calgary Flames 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 29 | 111 | 212 | 532 |
| CGY | 218 | 04 | 08 | 230 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:50CBJEgor ChinakhovAssists: Zach Werenski, Cole Sillinger · Backhand, 0.08 xG1–0
- P1 7:26CGYMacKenzie WeegarAssists: Andrew Mangiapane, Blake Coleman · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–1
- P1 11:48CBJDamon SeversonUnassisted · Wrist, 0.01 xG2–1
- P1 14:42CGYConnor ZaryAssists: Matt Coronato, Rasmus Andersson · Backhand, 0.13 xG2–2
- P2 6:33CBJAlexandre TexierSHGWGAssists: Sean Kuraly, Erik Gudbranson · Wrist, 0.30 xG3–2
- P3 13:43CBJDmitri VoronkovPPAssists: Adam Fantilli, Damon Severson · Wrist, 0.24 xG4–2
- P3 18:18CBJAdam FantilliENAssists: Egor Chinakhov · Wrist, 0.56 xG5–2
Penalties (6)
- P2 5:21CBJDamon Severson: High sticking2 min
- P2 11:09CGYA.J. Greer: Tripping2 min
- P2 17:57CGYMacKenzie Weegar: Hooking2 min
- P3 3:54CBJJack Roslovic: Tripping2 min
- P3 11:28CGYJonathan Huberdeau: Boarding5 min · PPG
- P3 11:28CGYJonathan Huberdeau: Game misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sillinger won the faceoff against Backlund
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestKuraly – Danforth – Texier10:19
xG 0.30–0.03 (91%)attempts 14–9goals 1–0
- Gaudreau – Chinakhov – Sillinger10:35
xG 0.24–0.35 (41%)attempts 6–10goals 1–0
- Jenner – Roslovic – Fantilli8:22
xG 0.11–0.34 (24%)attempts 6–7goals 0–1
- Marchenko – Voronkov – Johnson8:13
xG 0.04–0.33 (10%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Gudbranson – Bean9:14
xG 0.14–0.15 (49%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Werenski – Boqvist13:21
xG 0.53–0.58 (48%)attempts 18–19goals 1–0
- Severson – Provorov13:35
xG 0.11–0.35 (24%)attempts 8–11goals 1–1
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestKadri – Zary – Coronato7:22
xG 0.50–0.02 (95%)attempts 10–4goals 1–0
- Huberdeau – Lindholm – Sharangovich7:19
xG 0.21–0.09 (69%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Lindholm – Zary – Coronato3:36
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
- Backlund – Coleman – Mangiapane11:15
xG 0.34–0.39 (47%)attempts 14–9goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestOesterle – Kylington7:15
xG 0.47–0.15 (75%)attempts 12–5goals 0–0
- Weegar – Andersson11:51
xG 0.33–0.09 (78%)attempts 12–6goals 2–1
- Tanev – Hanifin14:55
xG 0.52–0.46 (53%)attempts 18–14goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).