Sat, Jan 27, 2024·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
Vegas Golden Knights 2, Detroit Red Wings 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 210 | 011 | 09 | 230 |
| DET | 38 | 015 | 26 | 529 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:04DETDylan LarkinAssists: Alex DeBrincat, Lucas Raymond · Snap, 0.17 xG0–1
- P1 7:00DETJake WalmanAssists: David Perron, Moritz Seider · Slap, 0.05 xG0–2
- P1 8:02VGKIvan BarbashevAssists: Nicolas Roy, Alec Martinez · Snap, 0.22 xG1–2
- P1 10:55VGKPaul CotterAssists: Alec Martinez, Alex Pietrangelo · Slap, 0.25 xG2–2
- P1 18:17DETJoseph VelenoPPGWGAssists: Moritz Seider, Robby Fabbri · Snap, 0.20 xG2–3
- P3 11:47DETAndrew CoppAssists: Michael Rasmussen · Snap, 0.10 xG2–4
- P3 18:30DETDylan LarkinENAssists: J.T. Compher, Lucas Raymond · Snap, 0.62 xG2–5
Penalties (4)
- P1 11:31VGKIvan Barbashev: Tripping2 min
- P1 16:44VGKBrayden McNabb: Boarding2 min · PPG
- P2 3:22DETJ.T. Compher: High sticking2 min
- P3 1:47DETAlex Lyon: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stephenson won the faceoff against Compher
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestStone – Stephenson – Cotter13:27
xG 1.37–0.70 (66%)attempts 18–11goals 1–2
- Amadio – Howden – Rempal9:40
xG 0.58–0.15 (79%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Froese – Kolesar – Rondbjerg6:19
xG 0.04–0.44 (8%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Marchessault – Barbashev – Roy12:57
xG 0.47–0.87 (35%)attempts 8–12goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestMcNabb – Korczak14:05
xG 0.45–0.09 (83%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Hague – Whitecloud16:07
xG 0.91–0.63 (59%)attempts 10–13goals 0–0
- Martinez – Pietrangelo16:06
xG 1.13–1.59 (42%)attempts 15–20goals 2–3
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- Larkin – DeBrincat – Raymond12:48
xG 0.84–0.85 (50%)attempts 12–10goals 1–1
- Copp – Fischer – Rasmussen13:02
xG 0.66–0.70 (49%)attempts 11–11goals 1–0
- Perron – Compher – Fabbri10:42
xG 0.56–0.71 (44%)attempts 13–9goals 1–1
- Sprong – Kostin – Veleno7:18
xG 0.20–0.35 (37%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPetry – Maatta15:37
xG 0.97–0.49 (66%)attempts 15–8goals 1–1
- Holl – Gostisbehere15:13
xG 0.42–0.90 (32%)attempts 13–12goals 0–0
- Walman – Seider14:40
xG 0.47–1.24 (27%)attempts 7–16goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it VGK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − VGK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).