Sat, Jan 27, 2024·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
New York Rangers 7, Ottawa Senators 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 012 | 59 | 28 | 729 |
| OTT | 17 | 19 | 015 | 231 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:43OTTBrady TkachukAssists: Claude Giroux · Backhand, 0.20 xG0–1
- P2 1:24OTTJakob ChychrunPPAssists: Drake Batherson, Thomas Chabot · Snap, 0.12 xG0–2
- P2 5:51NYRAlexis LafrenièreAssists: Artemi Panarin, Adam Fox · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–2
- P2 8:33NYRChris KreiderAssists: Mika Zibanejad · Snap, 0.02 xG2–2
- P2 9:12NYRZac JonesGWGAssists: Artemi Panarin, Vincent Trocheck · Snap, 0.19 xG3–2
- P2 11:16NYRJonny BrodzinskiAssists: Zac Jones, Will Cuylle · Deflected, 0.15 xG4–2
- P2 16:54NYRBlake WheelerAssists: Mika Zibanejad, Chris Kreider · Wrist, 0.11 xG5–2
- P3 17:17NYRArtemi PanarinENAssists: Alexis Lafrenière · Wrist, 0.58 xG6–2
- P3 17:52NYRKaapo KakkoAssists: Jonny Brodzinski, Erik Gustafsson · Wrist, 0.09 xG7–2
Penalties (11)
- P1 14:30NYRBarclay Goodrow: Fighting5 min
- P1 14:30OTTMark Kastelic: Fighting5 min
- P1 17:23OTTDrake Batherson: High sticking2 min
- P2 1:15NYRMika Zibanejad: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 4:58OTTBrady Tkachuk: Fighting5 min
- P2 4:58NYRConnor Mackey: Fighting5 min
- P2 8:27OTTMathieu Joseph: Embellishment2 min
- P2 8:27NYRBlake Wheeler: Interference2 min
- P2 18:05OTTArtem Zub: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 10:04OTTArtem Zub: Slashing2 min
- P3 17:17OTTJakob Chychrun: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Goodrow won the faceoff against Chartier
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestBrodzinski – Kakko – Cuylle9:44
xG 0.52–0.27 (66%)attempts 11–9goals 2–0
- Wheeler – Kreider – Zibanejad11:21
xG 0.30–0.39 (43%)attempts 11–14goals 1–0
- Pitlick – Goodrow – Vesey11:19
xG 0.10–0.20 (33%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
- Trocheck – Panarin – Lafrenière10:52
xG 0.62–1.07 (37%)attempts 12–15goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestGustafsson – Fox2:01
xG 0.36–0.05 (89%)attempts 4–1goals 1–0
- Gustafsson – Jones11:14
xG 0.70–0.54 (56%)attempts 12–11goals 2–0
- Fox – Mackey13:58
xG 0.16–0.42 (27%)attempts 8–13goals 0–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestGiroux – Tkachuk – Stützle10:54
xG 1.00–0.15 (87%)attempts 20–8goals 1–0
- Batherson – Pinto – Greig11:02
xG 0.20–0.25 (44%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Chartier – Kastelic – Kelly7:22
xG 0.15–0.25 (38%)attempts 5–7goals 0–1
- Tarasenko – Joseph – Norris10:22
xG 0.11–0.64 (15%)attempts 11–11goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestBrannstrom – Bernard-Docker12:11
xG 0.70–0.42 (63%)attempts 17–9goals 0–1
- Chabot – Chychrun17:33
xG 0.53–0.35 (60%)attempts 19–17goals 0–1
- Sanderson – Zub15:14
xG 0.66–0.66 (50%)attempts 13–14goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).