Sat, Jan 27, 2024·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
Montréal Canadiens 2, Pittsburgh Penguins 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 110 | 111 | 05 | 01 | 227 |
| PIT | 013 | 114 | 15 | 11 | 333 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:53MTLKaiden GuhleAssists: Mike Matheson, Cole Caufield · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–0
- P2 4:05PITLars EllerAssists: Valtteri Puustinen, Rickard Rakell · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–1
- P2 12:23MTLJuraj SlafkovskýPPAssists: Sean Monahan, Nick Suzuki · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–1
- P3 10:03PITJake GuentzelAssists: Sidney Crosby, Marcus Pettersson · Tip-in, 0.11 xG2–2
- OT 2:43PITMarcus PetterssonGWGAssists: Rickard Rakell, Evgeni Malkin · Snap, 0.17 xG2–3
Penalties (3)
- P1 9:19MTLJordan Harris: Tripping2 min
- P2 11:23PITKris Letang: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 17:44MTLKaiden Guhle: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eller won the faceoff against Suzuki
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestArmia – Monahan – Slafkovský13:33
xG 1.58–0.70 (69%)attempts 19–17goals 0–1
- Pezzetta – Harvey-Pinard – Condotta4:30
xG 0.00–0.06 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Anderson – Suzuki – Caufield14:17
xG 0.73–0.82 (47%)attempts 13–21goals 1–1
- Pearson – Evans – Harvey-Pinard2:17
xG 0.00–0.18 (2%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKovacevic – Harris11:57
xG 0.43–0.29 (60%)attempts 5–12goals 0–0
- Matheson – Guhle20:43
xG 1.39–1.47 (49%)attempts 20–31goals 1–2
- Savard – Struble15:20
xG 0.45–0.99 (31%)attempts 11–20goals 0–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestMalkin – Eller – Rakell5:34
xG 0.38–0.00 (99%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Carter – Harkins – Acciari5:57
xG 0.17–0.10 (64%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Malkin – White – O'Connor9:26
xG 0.50–0.48 (51%)attempts 15–9goals 0–0
- Eller – Rakell – Puustinen4:54
xG 0.20–0.19 (51%)attempts 5–1goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestLetang – Pettersson20:22
xG 1.91–0.94 (67%)attempts 36–18goals 2–1
- Ruhwedel – Joseph7:18
xG 0.21–0.05 (79%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Karlsson – Graves20:05
xG 0.55–1.09 (33%)attempts 17–15goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).