Sat, Jan 27, 2024·UBS Arena, Elmont
Florida Panthers 3, New York Islanders 2 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 04 | 117 | 113 | 13 | 337 |
| NYI | 07 | 18 | 17 | 01 | 223 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 7:56FLASam ReinhartPPAssists: Matthew Tkachuk, Carter Verhaeghe · Snap, 0.19 xG1–0
- P2 16:29NYISimon HolmstromAssists: Jean-Gabriel Pageau, Oliver Wahlstrom · Snap, 0.17 xG1–1
- P3 5:59FLAMatthew TkachukPPAssists: Aleksander Barkov, Brandon Montour · Tip-in, 0.16 xG2–1
- P3 18:31NYIKyle PalmieriAssists: Noah Dobson, Mathew Barzal · Snap, 0.11 xG2–2
- OT 1:57FLAOliver Ekman-LarssonGWGAssists: Evan Rodrigues, Anthony Stolarz · Wrist, 0.15 xG3–2
Penalties (5)
- P1 13:16FLAJonah Gadjovich: Tripping2 min
- P1 18:53NYIPierre Engvall: Hooking2 min
- P2 6:49NYIMathew Barzal: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 10:48NYIKyle MacLean: Tripping2 min
- P3 5:12NYISamuel Bolduc: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Pageau won the faceoff against Lundell
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestBarkov – Rodrigues – Samoskevich3:55
xG 0.17–0.05 (76%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Stenlund – Lomberg – Gadjovich7:21
xG 0.20–0.10 (66%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Verhaeghe – Bennett – Tkachuk10:08
xG 0.21–0.14 (59%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Reinhart – Luostarinen – Lundell3:06
xG 0.02–0.07 (24%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEkman-Larsson – Kulikov12:25
xG 0.36–0.14 (72%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Montour – Mikkola16:08
xG 0.29–0.37 (44%)attempts 12–13goals 0–0
- Ekblad – Forsling18:27
xG 0.30–0.65 (32%)attempts 20–16goals 0–1
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestLee – Horvat – Barzal16:42
xG 0.54–0.25 (69%)attempts 18–15goals 0–0
- Pageau – Wahlstrom – Holmstrom7:29
xG 0.30–0.12 (71%)attempts 6–7goals 1–0
- Palmieri – Nelson – Engvall10:22
xG 0.31–0.34 (47%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
- Clutterbuck – Martin – MacLean6:43
xG 0.01–0.14 (6%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestAho – Bolduc11:53
xG 0.49–0.22 (69%)attempts 9–11goals 1–0
- Reilly – Dobson3:48
xG 0.16–0.08 (67%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Reilly – Mayfield12:01
xG 0.27–0.19 (58%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).