Mon, Jan 29, 2024·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Nashville Predators 3, Ottawa Senators 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 311 | 011 | 06 | 00 | 328 |
| OTT | 07 | 313 | 014 | 11 | 435 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:26NSHMichael McCarronAssists: Roman Josi, Philip Tomasino · Slap, 0.13 xG1–0
- P1 16:30NSHPhilip TomasinoAssists: Tommy Novak, Cody Glass · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–0
- P1 19:00NSHYakov TreninAssists: Dante Fabbro, Roman Josi · Tip-in, 0.08 xG3–0
- P2 5:21OTTDrake BathersonAssists: Brady Tkachuk · Wrist, 0.18 xG3–1
- P2 9:20OTTTim StützleAssists: Mathieu Joseph · Snap, 0.11 xG3–2
- P2 17:10OTTBrady TkachukAssists: Josh Norris · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–3
- OT 3:36OTTClaude GirouxGWGAssists: Tim Stützle · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–4
Penalties (8)
- P1 1:57NSHMichael McCarron: Tripping2 min
- P1 12:50OTTThomas Chabot: Holding2 min
- P2 10:40OTTThomas Chabot: Kneeing2 min
- P2 19:39NSHJeremy Lauzon: Slashing2 min
- P2 19:39OTTRidly Greig: Embellishment2 min
- P3 2:35OTTErik Brannstrom: Slashing2 min
- P3 5:13NSHMichael McCarron: Holding2 min
- P3 9:22NSHJuuse Saros: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sissons won the faceoff against Norris
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestMcCarron – Trenin – Smith2:34
xG 0.14–0.04 (77%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- McCarron – Smith – Evangelista3:45
xG 0.15–0.09 (64%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
- Novak – Glass – Tomasino5:28
xG 0.20–0.45 (31%)attempts 10–8goals 1–1
- Sissons – Gurianov – Trenin6:46
xG 0.12–0.42 (22%)attempts 5–8goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcDonagh – Schenn9:00
xG 0.51–0.23 (69%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- McDonagh – Lauzon2:33
xG 0.33–0.06 (85%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Lauzon – Fabbro3:23
xG 0.15–0.06 (73%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestGiroux – Joseph – Stützle7:05
xG 0.65–0.03 (96%)attempts 15–6goals 1–0
- Norris – Batherson – Tkachuk8:25
xG 0.32–0.24 (57%)attempts 9–7goals 1–0
- Joseph – Norris – Batherson2:28
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Giroux – Tkachuk – Stützle5:16
xG 0.56–0.56 (50%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSanderson – Zub13:47
xG 1.44–0.67 (68%)attempts 21–15goals 2–0
- Brannstrom – Bernard-Docker8:48
xG 0.13–0.28 (31%)attempts 7–7goals 0–2
- Chabot – Chychrun20:08
xG 0.71–0.99 (42%)attempts 21–26goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).