Thu, Feb 8, 2024·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Winnipeg Jets 1, Philadelphia Flyers 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 04 | 015 | 110 | 129 |
| PHI | 313 | 13 | 05 | 421 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:37PHITyson FoersterAssists: Ryan Poehling, Noah Cates · Tip-in, 0.07 xG0–1
- P1 14:03PHITravis KonecnyGWGAssists: Morgan Frost, Sean Walker · Snap, 0.16 xG0–2
- P1 18:06PHIMorgan FrostAssists: Owen Tippett, Travis Konecny · Wrist, 0.24 xG0–3
- P2 2:29PHIRyan PoehlingSHUnassisted · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–4
- P3 14:48WPGKyle ConnorAssists: Mark Scheifele, Josh Morrissey · Backhand, 0.18 xG1–4
Penalties (9)
- P1 6:03WPGNeal Pionk: Fighting5 min
- P1 6:03PHITravis Konecny: Fighting5 min
- P1 6:27WPGVladislav Namestnikov: High sticking2 min
- P1 10:46WPGNino Niederreiter: Slashing2 min
- P2 2:22PHITravis Konecny: Hooking2 min
- P2 16:11PHIScott Laughton: Tripping2 min
- P3 2:07PHIGarnet Hathaway: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 10:47WPGGabriel Vilardi: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 11:49WPGDylan DeMelo: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Poehling won the faceoff against Lowry
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestNiederreiter – Lowry – Appleton8:14
xG 0.87–0.06 (94%)attempts 16–3goals 0–0
- Scheifele – Ehlers – Connor2:54
xG 0.46–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–0goals 1–0
- Namestnikov – Iafallo – Barron3:01
xG 0.15–0.01 (95%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Scheifele – Connor – Iafallo5:14
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDeMelo – Morrissey17:10
xG 1.05–0.51 (67%)attempts 20–11goals 1–0
- Morrissey – Pionk2:30
xG 0.28–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Samberg – Pionk10:27
xG 0.17–0.12 (57%)attempts 12–5goals 0–1
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- Laughton – Hathaway – Konecny3:10
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Tippett – Frost – Farabee2:12
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
- Couturier – Konecny – Tippett3:30
xG 0.09–0.19 (32%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Atkinson – Couturier – Tippett4:03
xG 0.01–0.15 (5%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSanheim – Zamula4:04
xG 0.31–0.04 (89%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Sanheim – York9:19
xG 0.41–0.36 (53%)attempts 6–9goals 1–0
- Staal – Drysdale7:27
xG 0.09–0.08 (51%)attempts 4–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).